BAGHDAD, Iraq – Iraq’s new parliament will hold its first session on Monday, a closely anticipated event as post-election Iraq grapples with the question of who will sit in parliament and who will lead the next government.
Who becomes prime minister is just one question, but it is a top priority for incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who was stripped of his powers by the Federal Supreme Court (FSC) in November and replaced his government with a caretaker government.
Mr al-Sudani will also need to prove he can steer the country through complex domestic and international positions as he rushes to forge new alliances to compensate for his divided constituency.
Return to framework
Sources from al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) said he wanted to use the time between election day and the new parliament’s first session to build momentum for negotiations.
He tried to build his political base through an independent electoral roll and won a landslide victory, winning around 46 of 329 seats, but the FSC ruling sent him back to the Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF), which nominated him four years ago and from which he had sought to break away.
Now he loses the advantage of an RDC victory and must submit to the SCF leadership, many of whom have no seats in parliament and instead act as external power brokers.
Whether it chooses al-Sudani or someone else to be prime minister, the SCF’s biggest challenge will be figuring out how to deal with the fact that traditional Shiite parties are losing ground while armed Shiite parties are winning big in this election.
Although the militants have long been members of the SCF and have played a role in Iraq, never before have pro-Iranian, anti-Western militants had such a large presence and voice in Congress.
This is a problem not only for the major powers with ties to Iraq, but also for some Shiite Iraqis who are dissatisfied with Iran’s outsized influence in their country.
Rise of armed groups
The SCF commands approximately 180 MPs. Of these, 80 to 90 belong to groups or armed groups close to Iran, most of which are under U.S. sanctions. In 2021, there were only 17 seats.
In the al-Sudani camp, Fareh al-Fayad, head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), won 10 seats, and Labor Minister Ahmed al-Assadi, who heads the Jund al-Imam Brigades, an armed faction within the PMF, won eight seats.
The growing presence of anti-Western and pro-Iranian armed groups in the government-building process has put Iraq on a potential collision course with the European Union, Gulf states, Britain and the United States.
Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said the United States sent a message to Iraqi leaders that it would not accept these factions, many of which have political affiliations and have long operated on state payrolls, to hold positions in the government.
The United States had previously adopted an unstated policy of “non-engagement” with armed group officials, refusing to engage, while maintaining normal relations with other members of the Cabinet.
Washington’s involvement in the next government depends entirely on the extent of representation of these factions, and this issue still awaits resolution.
But it remains to be seen whether the US will stop with further sanctions against individuals or escalate to crippling measures that could cripple the Iraqi state, such as sanctions on the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) and restrictions on Baghdad’s access to US Federal Reserve funds.
Many key figures in the government formation process have already been sanctioned by the United States, including PMF chief al-Fayad, Asaib al-al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali, and Qadamat leader Shibr al-Zaidi.
Government formation negotiations
When Parliament convenes, members are sworn in and a Speaker is elected. This person is a consensus Sunni candidate according to the customary muhasasa system that has been in place since the first post-2003 constitutional government.
What will follow, Muhasasa said, will be a presidential vote for a Kurdish candidate. The president then nominates a candidate from the SCF, the largest Shia faction, to be prime minister.
Before the election, Supreme Judicial Council President Faik Zaidan urged politicians to abide by constitutional deadlines (up to 90 days) to form a government, and the FSC ratified the results sooner than usual.
However, historically, no Iraqi government has been established within the constitutional deadline, which took more than 300 days in 2021. The SCF is also struggling to find suitable candidates while balancing the high profile of the armed groups currently seated in parliament, potentially prolonging the process.
Historically, Iran has played a central role in forging consensus on the prime minister among Shia sects.
But Iran’s role is now in question as it weakens regionally, dealing with the aftermath of Israeli and U.S. attacks, a weakened economy due to sanctions, and the deterioration of its regional proxy.
It remains to be seen whether this will change the way international powers view the major gains pro-Iranian Shiite militias have made in Congress.
