Defra’s latest figures suggest the UK’s pig herd has fallen to a new low, raising fresh concerns about whether the sector will be able to rebuild after the pig crisis, with industry insiders questioning the accuracy of official data.
Statistics released just before Christmas showed the breeding herd fell by 3.2% to 316,000 animals in the year to June 2025. Defra’s census showed the overall pig herd rose by 0.5% to 4.74 million pigs, but AHDB questioned whether the June survey reflected the true position of the breeding sector.
The increase in total numbers was driven by a 0.9% increase in the number of fattening pigs to 4.33 million pigs, masking continued pressure on reproductive performance. According to Defra statistics, female breeding herds have shrunk in the three years since the 2022 pig crisis, with numbers plummeting from 398,000 to 343,000.
A breakdown of the data highlights continued concerns about future supplies. The number of sows decreased by 1.5% from the previous year to 233,000, and the number of heifers decreased by 7.7% to 39,000. The number of dry or suckling sows decreased by 8.6% to 44,000 pigs, the number of first breeding heifers decreased by 2.4% to 82,000 pigs and the number of boars decreased by 6.2% to 9,000 pigs.
Regional trends varied markedly. Northern Ireland recorded increases in both breeding pigs, up 10% to 62,000 pigs, and fattening pigs, up 7.4% to 683,000 pigs. In the UK, the number of breeding pigs fell by 4% to 313,000, and the number of fattening pigs fell to 3.34 million.
In Scotland, although the number of fattening pigs increased slightly to 282,000 pigs, the number of breeding pigs fell even further to 30,000 pigs, a 17% decline. In Wales, breeding numbers fell slightly to 2,200 pigs, while fattening pigs increased slightly to 26,000 pigs.
AHDB senior analyst Freya Shuttleworth said the organization had raised concerns directly with Defra about the way census data was compiled, and stressed the need to “underscore the importance of accurate and timely data reporting”.
He said the June survey was based on responses from a sample of commercial stocks and then expanded to a national level, making it “susceptible to nonresponse bias” where changing respondents could skew the picture. Other datasets suggest smaller declines in breeding pig numbers, she added.
Agrovision’s key performance indicators indicate a 1% year-over-year decline in the second quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, eMB submission data for the second quarter shows both England and Scotland falling by 2%, compared with the larger decline recorded by Defra, while statistics for Northern Ireland show a 5% decline rather than the 10% increase shown in the census.
Ms Shuttleworth also pointed to market evidence supporting the increase in finishing numbers, including abattoir data showing that the number of complete pig slaughters from January to November has increased by 2.4% since the start of the year, highlighting the gap between on-farm breeding trends and throughput in the wider supply chain.
