KAMPALA, Uganda – When singer-turned-politician Bobi Wine (real name Robert Kyagulanyi) began his campaign to become Uganda’s next president in October, he appeared in a tailored suit and greeted the crowd with his signature smile.
There was a cautiously hopeful atmosphere, at least at first.
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But by December, that image had disappeared.
Bobi Wine, the main opposition candidate seeking to unseat long-serving president Yoweri Museveni, will now appear in public only wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet as the election campaign concludes on Tuesday.
For many Ugandans, his change in dress and the accompanying state violence are symbolic of a foregone political outcome. This means that the incumbent’s victory is likely to be rejected by his competitors.
Since Bobi Wine was allowed to run in September, his campaign convoys have frequently been met with tear gas, roadblocks and arrests of supporters. Campaign events are regularly disrupted, with people suddenly scattering and roads being blocked.
While the violence has not reached the deadly levels of the 2021 election, when more than 50 people were killed and hundreds of Bobi Wine supporters were detained following spontaneous protests in the capital Kampala, analysts observe that the electoral environment is becoming increasingly militarized, with calculated repression and intimidation, and the steadily shrinking scope for Bobi Wine to pitch his manifesto.
Bobi Wine, 43, will be contesting Thursday’s election for the second time after finishing runner-up in the 2021 polls.
Museveni won the last contested vote in which Bobi Wine claimed fraud and urged people to reject the result. The 81-year-old incumbent has ruled the country for nearly 40 years since seizing power after a war of rebellion and is seeking a seventh term in office.
Five other candidates are running in this year’s election, and 21.6 million registered voters are expected to vote.
climate of fear
Even before the campaign officially began, Bobi Wine’s team expected violence.
Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni’s son and commander of Uganda’s military, had made public threats against Bobi Wine in the months leading up to the election, including threatening to behead Bobi Wine.
Kainerugaba also claimed responsibility for the kidnapping and torture of Bobi Wine’s bodyguard Edward Seboeuf, who remains in custody.
Opposition officials say that although Kainerugaba’s worst threats have not materialized, the state, fearing Bobi Wine’s large audience, decided to use violence against him during the campaign.
“In terms of violence, for the first month, [October] “At first it wasn’t very violent, but then it became violent and chaotic,” David Luis Lubonyoya, secretary general of Bobi Wine’s party, the National Unity Platform (NUP), told Al Jazeera.
Bobi Wine was attacked by security forces armed with sticks and people in plain clothes during a campaign stop in Gulu, northern Uganda, in December. He and several of his aides were beaten and campaign equipment destroyed. One person later died after the incident. In another incident in November in Mbarara, western Uganda, police arrested 43 Bobi Wine supporters after a standoff over campaign routes. They remain in custody.
The arrest of Bobi Wine for allegedly flaunting COVID-19 guidelines during the 2021 election period sparked protests and a deadly police crackdown. Although violence has subsided so far this year, opposition figures and analysts say the crackdown is only getting tougher and more restrained than before.
Michael Muchaba, a Ugandan political analyst and postdoctoral fellow at SOAS, University of London, says the difference lies in strategy.
“Before 2021, security services were in a state of panic. There was less calculated state violence. Now the violence seems more calculated and escalating,” he told Al Jazeera. As an example, he cited people arrested at random, such as a Catholic priest charged with money laundering. The government also arrested Sara Birete, a prominent human rights activist and critic, but she will only be released after the elections.
“Bribery” of voters and candidates
Bobi Wine is also facing a growing onslaught from the state, with candidates sponsored by his party running in parliamentary elections under particular stress. Similarly, many candidates in Thursday’s parliamentary vote withdrew their candidacies, publicly denounced Bobi Wine and joined the ruling party.
Most of these defections are controlled by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Thomas Taibwa and occur daily, but mainly outside the central region, which is considered Bobi Wine’s stronghold. Bobi Wine claims these candidates were bribed, but the state claims they freely joined the ruling party without conditions.
Yusuf Serunkuma, a political analyst based at Kampala’s Makerere University, said he was not surprised by the “regime’s” tactics.
“This is part of transactional politics,” he told Al Jazeera. But he added that if the opposition had the ability to buy candidates from the ruling party, they would do it every day as well.
Another method the state used to eliminate candidates sponsored by Bobi Wine’s political party was through disqualification by the Electoral Commission, which claimed that some candidates did not meet nomination requirements. Jude Byamukama, a Ugandan constitutional lawyer, said the cancellation was “ridiculous” as critics say it was a tactic deployed to stop the opposition.
“They are [Electoral Commission] Byamukama told Al Jazeera, adding that after the disqualification, the failure to submit a written decision in time made it difficult for candidates to appeal to the court.
Months before the election season, Mr. Museveni launched a softer campaign, particularly targeting informal sector actors in Bobi Wine’s strongholds in central Uganda. There, the president distributed millions of dollars in cash to groups including motorcycle riders, taxi drivers, salon owners and street vendors. Former Makerere University historian Mwambusha Ndebesa described it as “election corruption” aimed at influencing voters, while Serunkuma said “vote buying” was normal in Ugandan politics, but this time it was more organized.
Fear that the worst is yet to come
As Thursday’s polling day approaches, Bobi Wine has warned that the state plans to arrest him and abduct key organizers who play a role in monitoring polling stations.
He advised his supporters to disable location services on their phones, avoid predictable routes, limit time spent in one place, and flee if pursued by unfamiliar vehicles or motorcycles, such as the Toyota Hiace, which is often associated with state abductions.
“I am aware of a plot by a desperate regime to have me arrested before voting day,” he recently said on social media.
Another flashpoint looms on election day itself: whether voters should remain close to polling stations after voting to “protect their votes,” as Bobi Wine claims.
Ugandan law allows voters to stay at least 20 meters (66 feet) away from polling stations, but the electoral commission and security officials have advised people to leave immediately after voting.
The election commission characterized the issue as one of discipline, not legality, and warned that crowds could cause disorder.
Ugandans want peace
Despite the tense atmosphere among political actors, Ugandans say they want peace, regardless of political affiliation.
Wayama Isaac, a Kampala temporary construction worker and Bobi Wine supporter, says the election should not turn violent.
“Violence doesn’t help anyone. It’s the responsibility of both sides to remain calm.”
Masabe Alex, a boda boda rider who supports Museveni, agrees.
“As we saw in 2021, violence destroys businesses and livelihoods.”
He insists that opposition parties should not intimidate Museveni supporters like himself.
An uncertain final battle
Bobi Wine’s campaign has not disclosed its post-election strategy. But Mr Museveni has warned supporters of his rivals not to dare confront security agencies.
“I heard Bobi Wine say that there are few soldiers and police but many rioters. Don’t believe him. Every soldier and police officer has a gun with 120 bullets,” Museveni warned in December.
The military has already loaded soldiers into infantry mobile vehicles in Kampala, a rebel stronghold.
NUP’s Rubongoya insists that the electoral commission cannot declare an opposition candidate the winner in Uganda without pressure from the people.
“If Ugandans vote in large numbers and peacefully demand victory, the electoral commission will be forced to announce suitable candidates,” he said.
“Our ideology is people power. Once people are determined, no amount of blackmail or money can stop them,” he added.
However, Rubongoya acknowledged that memories of the 2020-2021 election violence still haunt many Ugandans. He warned that any attempt at protest could be met with deadly force.
Serunkuma argues that the opposition signed up for a rigged election process from the start and knows they will never win, suggesting the opposition’s goal may not be to unseat Museveni himself.
Instead, he says, parties like Bobi Wine’s want to “consolidate themselves under Museveni,” including by retaining their positions in parliament.
Muchaba predicts that Bobi Wine will likely be placed under house arrest after the election results are announced. This is a tactic the state has used repeatedly since 2011. His party will issue a statement denying the election results and that will likely be the end of it.
“It is impossible to organize protests in the current situation,” Mutyaba said. “The dynamics are not in their favor. The only hope is that at some point during Museveni’s next term, an incident could spark a riot. But it won’t happen next week.”
