Protests in Iran are nothing new. The country, which has been under sanctions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has been rocked by repeated waves of demonstrations.
But experts say the current deadly chaos is unprecedented, due to a powerful combination of increased domestic pressure and aggressive threats from the United States, leaving Iranian leaders with fewer options on what to do next.
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What began as a protest by shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on December 28 over the devaluation of Iran’s currency quickly turned into nationwide demonstrations, drawing an unusually broad social coalition.
The record decline in the value of the Iranian rial was just the latest in a series of crises, from water shortages and power outages to rising unemployment and rampant inflation that has long swallowed household incomes.
The reimposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018 has made daily life difficult for millions of Iranians, causing many to lose confidence in the authorities’ ability to improve the economy and crack down on mismanagement and corruption.
The situation has been made worse by US President Donald Trump, who ordered airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June and is now loudly threatening to attack Iran again, claiming the aim was to “support” protesters.
“This is a much worse economic situation for Iran, a much worse geopolitical situation, and a clearly different level of dissent within the regime itself,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute.
government is stuck
Initially, the government attempted to address dissatisfaction by rolling out a series of economic reforms. The changes included replacing the central bank governor and eliminating preferential exchange rates for imports of certain essential goods, replacing them with monthly cash transfers of $7.
But the movement felt flat. And as the protests grew, the security forces’ response entered a new, more violent phase.
Since January 8, authorities have imposed a near-total communications blackout and thousands of people have been arrested.
Iran has not released an official death toll, but authorities say more than 100 security forces have been killed. Anti-government activists say the death toll is much higher, including hundreds of demonstrators.
This is not the first time the government has resorted to harsh tactics. The difference, experts say, is that even if it succeeds in crushing the current opposition, it seems unable to find a way forward.
On the eve of the protests, President Massoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the country’s economic difficulties, saying, “I can’t do anything.”
As a result of large-scale turmoil in the past, the government has given some benefits to Iranians.
After mass protests in 2009, Iran showed flexibility by negotiating a nuclear deal with Western countries. Following protests caused by the economic situation in 2019, authorities continued to provide subsidies using state coffers. And after mass protests led by women in 2022, authorities eased some social restrictions.
But today’s options are limited, says Roxana Furman-Farmain, professor of modern Middle East politics at the University of Cambridge. “The regime is very isolated and we find that there are not many options to solve the economic problems, which is leading to a sense of impasse,” she said.
Iran faces more than just domestic pressure. The alliance has been significantly weakened since Israel’s multi-pronged regional war began in 2023, while the 12-day conflict with Israel has left the country’s defenses in a weakened state.
Iranian authorities see the protests as more than just a domestic issue, as the specter of possible U.S. military intervention looms large.
“There is a widespread view within the system that this is fully orchestrated by the United States and Israel, and that this is the beginning of the next phase of the 12-day war,” Parsi said.
In June, tensions between Iran and Israel erupted into full-scale war, ending with the United States attacking Iran’s main nuclear facilities. Since then, Israel has also made no secret of its desire for another attack on Tehran to finally achieve regime change.
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The sense of an impending external threat prompted the military, which rarely gets involved in domestic affairs in contrast to the more ideological Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to issue a statement declaring support for the government, adding that it would protect the country’s strategic infrastructure.
“In Tehran’s understanding, they [Israeli authorities] teeth [attempting] This is to soften the ground for another war. That’s why the military is taking a stand because they see it as an existential threat,” Parsi said.
The US has made it clear that attacking Iran is also an option. In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragushi warned the US that Iran is ready for war if it wants to “experiment” Iran.
It is unclear how and whether Trump will attack, but the January 3 abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro shows his growing willingness to attack foreign countries and remove their leaders while leaving his regime largely intact.
“Iran may believe that the United States wants to eliminate its supreme leader and many key leaders in a targeted attack,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University. “The United States may then try to force the Islamic Republic’s remaining forces to take action on nuclear and missile issues that its leaders have refused to do.”
“Their view of Venezuela is that the United States… wants to change the situation in Iran, but it’s not going to invade Iran with troops, and the United States is not necessarily looking for regime change and state-building like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
So far, Iran’s political leadership has remained unified and there have been no confirmed defections within the military. But Ali Alfone, a senior fellow at the Arab and Gulf States Institute, said strategic options appeared to be diminishing, caught between a structural economic crisis and the threat of external intervention.
“Iran’s leadership is approaching a critical crossroads. Iran could pursue Venezuela-style accommodation with President Donald J. Trump, or it could involve a change in leadership while retaining the regime’s core institutions, but it remains on a trajectory of economic deterioration, recurrent mass protests, and gradual decline in cohesion within the security services, which could ultimately lead to regime collapse,” Alfone said.
