The main impasse in the negotiations is the long-term fate of eastern Ukraine’s territory.
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are scheduled to take part in a second round of U.S.-mediated talks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to move forward in difficult talks over how to end Russia’s nearly four-year war in Ukraine.
The two-day tripartite talks scheduled for Abu Dhabi come as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accuses Russia of violating a Trump-brokered agreement to halt attacks on energy facilities.
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In the run-up to the talks, a massive Russian drone and missile barrage hit Ukraine’s energy grid, knocking out power and heating in temperatures well below freezing, threatening to cloud the prospects for progress in the Emirati capital.
“These Russian attacks confirm that Moscow’s attitude has not changed. They continue to bet on war and the destruction of Ukraine and do not take diplomacy seriously,” Zelensky said on Tuesday.
“The work of the negotiating team will be adjusted accordingly,” he said, without elaborating.
The first meeting, held in the UAE last month, marked the first direct public negotiations between Moscow and Kiev on a plan proposed by US President Donald Trump’s administration to end Europe’s worst conflict since World War II.
The Trump administration has spent the past year urging the two countries to find a compromise, but as the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of its neighbor approaches at the end of this month, it appears that breaking the impasse on key issues may not be far off.
What is the problem?
The biggest issue is the long-term fate of Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s security against future Russian attack is also an obstacle to negotiations to end the conflict.
As a precondition to the agreement, the Russian government requires Kiev to withdraw its troops from the Donbas region, which includes heavily fortified cities on vast natural resources. It also wants international recognition of the land it annexed in eastern Ukraine.
Kiev said the conflict should be frozen along current front lines and rejected a unilateral troop withdrawal.
The Ukrainian delegation will be headed by Security Council President Rustem Umerov, while Russia will be headed by military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov, a career naval officer who was sanctioned by Western countries for his role in the invasion of Ukraine.
Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev attended talks with US officials in Florida over the weekend. Neither side disclosed details of the talks, but U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said they were “productive and constructive.”
Witkoff led the U.S. team in the talks last month.
Neighboring Russia, which accounts for about 20% of the country, has threatened to seize the rest of the Donetsk region if negotiations fail.
Ukraine has warned that concessionary positions will embolden Russia and that it will not sign a deal that does not prevent Russian aggression again.
Kiev still controls about a fifth of the mineral-rich Donetsk region.
Russia also claims the Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions as its own territory, and also retains some territory in at least three other eastern regions of Ukraine.
Opinion polls show that a majority of Ukrainians oppose a deal that would give land to Moscow in exchange for peace.
On the battlefield, Russia is making gains at huge human cost in the hopes of outpacing and surpassing Kiev’s mighty military.
President Zelenskiy is pressuring Western backers to increase their own arms supplies and increase economic and political pressure on the Kremlin to thwart the invasion.
After the first round of talks, Ukrainians doubted whether any agreement could be reached with Moscow.
“I think this is all just a show for the people,” Petro, a Kiev resident, told AFP news agency. “We have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”
