Eli Lilly announces profit exceeding Novo Nordisk in GLP-1 market, financial results announcement

This is the story of two pharmaceutical companies in the competitive obesity drug market.

both novo nordisk and Eli Lilly is grappling with falling prices in the U.S., but its outlook for 2026 is far off. While Novo is bracing for a drop in sales, Lilly expects its profits to jump again thanks to a blockbuster drug.

Despite similar headwinds, the guidance split highlights the strength of Lilly’s position in the obesity and diabetes drug markets, supported by factors such as more effective injectables and early entry into direct-to-consumer sales. Novo Nordisk effectively brought the drug into the mainstream, but Lilly has had a clear market share advantage ever since. And according to predictions, Lily’s advantage is likely to grow even further this year.

“Differences in sales momentum and market share trends have been seen throughout 2025, but the dichotomy in the outlook for both companies was highlighted in the past 24 hours, with Novo below consensus expectations and Lilly above consensus expectations,” Leerink Partners analyst David Reisinger told CNBC on Wednesday.

“This really solidified investors’ idea that Lilly was going to be a major player in obesity going forward,” he added.

This year, all eyes will be on how Lilly’s next obesity treatment drug, orforglipron, will fare against Novo’s proprietary oral drug, Wigovy, which exploded onto the market this year in the United States.

Lilly CEO David Rix said in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday that between 20 million and 25 million patients are currently taking the companies’ drugs. But he said the overall addressable patient market in the bariatric space is “huge.”

Lilly on Wednesday expected 2026 sales of $80 billion to $83 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG.

The midpoint of this outlook would be a 25% increase in sales this year.

In contrast, Novo on Tuesday warned that its sales and profits will fall 5% to 13% this year as prices fall in the U.S. and exclusivity for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs ends in China, Brazil and Canada.

Lilly similarly pointed to “global price declines in the low to mid-teens.” [percentages] This comes after the companies signed a landmark “most-favoured-nation” agreement with President Donald Trump in November to reduce the cost of drugs to treat obesity and diabetes, along with recent efforts to further reduce direct-to-consumer prices for drugs.

Although the deal with President Trump will hurt sales for both companies, it is expected to ultimately increase prescription volumes for both companies’ drugs. Still, Lilly is bullish on other factors that could help offset price pressures.

This includes continued global demand for the company’s obesity treatment Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro, as well as the anticipated launch of its obesity treatment GLP-1 in the second quarter, pending U.S. approval. Lilly also pointed out that Medicare coverage for government obesity treatment will begin for the first time by at least July, one of the winning points of the drug price deal with President Trump.

Lilly’s Ricks told CNBC that the news opens up access to 40 million new Medicare beneficiaries and “that amount could grow significantly.”

Overall, Reisinger called Lilly’s guidance “very encouraging” and said the “price-per-capacity trade-off is working well” for the company.

He said tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound and Mounjaro, was “superior” in terms of efficacy and tolerability compared to semaglutide, an ingredient in Novo’s obesity and diabetes drugs. That’s proven in head-to-head clinical trials conducted by Lilly in 2024, and prescribing trends show the company’s drugs are preferred by prescribers.

“I think that’s what’s driving Lilly’s market share growth” compared to Novo, Reisinger said.

Another factor that differentiates Lilly from Novo is patent exclusivity. Novo said patent expirations were an issue in some international markets, but Lilly’s Rix said tirzepatide should be protected in key markets until “the late 2030s.”

Reisinger noted that Lilly is still working to accelerate global adoption of tirzepatide, which won approval in the U.S. to treat obesity in 2023.

Novo Nordisk was the first to market its GLP-1 tablet for the treatment of obesity, reaching 50,000 weekly prescriptions in less than three weeks after its launch. But investors are watching to see how things change once Lilly’s pill is available to patients later this year.

In an interview with CNBC’s “Mad Money,” Novo CEO Mike Dusder said he was confident in the company’s ability to compete with Lilly.

“It’s clear that we have the most effective weight loss drugs that exist right now, and I’m very optimistic and bullish that they’re going to come out with that drug and we have to fight this,” Dusdahl said.

He cites clinical trial data that suggests Novo’s Wigovy tablets promote weight loss by about 15%, comparable to the injectable version. Meanwhile, Lilly’s pills appear to be slightly less effective, based on data from another study.

Reisinger said Novo’s pill launch benefits from the fact that the company leverages the Wigoby brand name, which is recognized by many patients, and immediately began direct-to-consumer advertising of the product in early January.

But he said Lilly could take advantage of the pill’s convenience.

Orforglipron is a small molecule drug that is easily absorbed by the body and does not require dietary restrictions like Novo Nordisk’s peptide tablets. Patients should drink no more than 4 ounces of water with Wegovy tablets and should wait 30 minutes before eating or drinking anything else each day.

Novo maintains these requirements won’t be an impediment to widespread adoption, but Reisinger said they could help Lilly’s pill ultimately generate greater sales around the world.