BANGKOK, Thailand – In recent weeks, it’s been hard to miss seeing the orange election buses of Thailand’s opposition People’s Party winding through cities and villages carrying pro-reform politicians on what has been called a “Future Choice” tour.
At rally stops, thousands of people gather to hear promises of change.
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On social media, videos of the candidates have been viewed millions of times.
For many, support for the party ahead of Sunday’s general election has stoked hope that the democratic future it promises may finally be within reach.
However, in Thailand, winning an election does not guarantee the right to rule.
The People’s Party, known simply as the Orange Party because of its distinctive color, is the latest incarnation of a progressive movement that has repeatedly clashed with Thailand’s conservative royalist forces. His predecessor won the last election in 2023, gaining 151 seats in the 500-member lower house. However, it was blocked from power by the military-appointed Senate and later dissolved by the Constitutional Court over the court’s demands to curb the powers of the monarchy.
“The number of our ‘soldiers’ may have increased, but the conservative weapons remain devastatingly powerful,” said Sankrit Duanmaniporn, co-director of Breaking the Cycle, a documentary about the Orange Movement. But he said he was hopeful that his party’s overwhelming support in the polls would force compromise from the entrenched establishment.
“We’re going to fight at the polls on Sunday,” he said. “That’s all we can do.”
overridden obligation
Thailand, with a population of about 71 million, has been stuck in a depressing loop for more than a quarter of a century. Reform parties win elections, only to be removed by courts, coups, or other interventions by judges, generals, and tycoons loyal to the monarchy.
Many fear this pattern is about to be repeated.
Opinion polls show the People’s Party will win the most seats again on Sunday, but analysts say caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s conservative Bhumjatai Party has a better chance of forming a government.
A January 30 poll by the National Institute of Development Administration found that People’s Party leader Nattaporn Ruempanyawut was the top candidate for prime minister with 29.1%, followed by Anutin with 22.4%. In the party list, the People’s Party topped the list with 34.2 percent, followed by Bhumjaithai with 22.6 percent. In third place was the Thai Contribution Party, the political party of imprisoned former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, with 16.2%.
The top candidate must secure the support of 251 MPs. Analysts believe that unless the People’s Party reaches that standard on its own, Bhumjaithai may seek to form the next government with support from conservative power brokers, the Contribution of Thailand Party and smaller parties.
The People’s Party traces its roots back to the Future Forward Party, which was founded in 2018 with a pledge to curb the influence of non-elected institutions. It quickly became the most serious challenge to elite control of Thailand’s politics and economy in a generation, winning 81 seats in the first election in 2019.
However, it was dissolved by the court the following year.
The party, reformed as Move Forward, won elections in 2023, but disbanded again the following year.
“We don’t use money to buy electricity.”
Lukcanok Srinok, 32, a member of the New People’s Party, said past defeats should not dampen hope. Speaking at a rally in the northern city of Chiang Mai, Lukhanok, known as “Ice”, said her party had already changed Thai politics.
“We are a party that won elections without spending a single baht on vote-buying,” she told Al Jazeera, referring to vote-buying practices that have long shaped Thai elections, especially in rural areas.
“We don’t spend money to buy electricity,” she said.
Luchanok’s own rise reflects the party’s appeal.
A former online vendor, she built a following on social media by criticizing corruption and military excesses, which led to her becoming a member of parliament. Her story showed what is possible in a more just system, she said.
“If people understand that they have a role and that their voice matters, they will not lose hope in politics,” Luchanok said.
But that idealism may not be enough.
Thammasat University legal scholar Prinya Thewanarmitkul warned that “plutocracy” could still dictate rural outcomes even as voters increasingly “take money but vote with their hearts.”
For the People’s Party, he added, its chances of forming a government “become realistic” only if it secures more than 200 seats.
conservative counterattack
Anutin, the caretaker prime minister, is the leading candidate for royalist conservatives as the National Party surges in the polls.
Anutin, an heir to a construction fortune and the face of Thailand’s legalization of cannabis, became prime minister in August after the Constitutional Court sacked his predecessor, Pethuntarn Shinawatra, over his handling of the country’s border crisis with Cambodia.
Since then, he has skillfully exploited nationalist sentiment around the conflict, which left 149 people dead on both sides before a December ceasefire.
“Anyone can say, ‘If you choose me, you won’t regret it,'” Anutin told a rally near the Cambodian border this week. “But Bumjaitai says that if the military is on our side, we will never lose.”
Anutin assembled a team of experienced figures from the business and diplomatic worlds and attracted support from powerful political dynasties who traded support for ministerial positions. The party has also launched populist policies, such as subsidies that cover half the cost of food, which are popular among struggling households and small and medium-sized businesses.
“I don’t know about many other policies,” Buapan Anusak, 56, said at a recent Bhumjaithai rally in Bangkok. “But we also have to have a patriotic prime minister,” she added, referring to border tensions.
Bhumjaithai is also moving into territory once dominated by the Thai Contribution Party, which won every election from 2001 until the People’s Party’s rise to power in 2023.
Mr. Thaksin, the founder of the Thai Contribution Party, is now 76 years old and remains a hero to many for his policies such as universal healthcare. However, the Thai Contribution Party came in second in the last election and joined forces with military-backed parties to form the government, thus losing the Kuomintang’s role as a voice for reform. Since then, two prime ministers, including Thaksin’s daughter Pethunthan, have been removed by courts and two governments have collapsed.
Thaksin is currently in prison, with a parole hearing scheduled for May, when a new government will need to be formed.
“Thaksin remains a master of ‘consensus’,” said Prinya, an academic at Thammasat University. And given Mr. Thaksin’s legal troubles and the pending case against his daughter, Thaksin politicians are “strongly motivated to maintain cooperation with conservative forces,” Prinya added.
economic burden
Whoever wins on Sunday will inherit a country in economic crisis.
Tariffs have hit exporters, growth has slowed to less than 2% and tourist numbers have fallen.
“This may be Thailand’s last chance to repair its once Teflon-coated economy,” said Pavida Pananon, an international business professor at Thammasat University, citing Thailand’s historic resilience.
But she stressed that political stability is essential for recovery.
“Respecting the outcome and avoiding political gamesmanship that derails the democratic process is essential to restoring confidence in the economy,” he added.
Returning to his campaign, Luchanok urged Thais not to give up.
“The moment you stop sending a signal by voting, that’s when the 1 percent who control the resources of this country decide for you,” she said. “When people look at politics, they may see something ‘dirty’, full of bluffs, mudslinging, and endless debate. But if politics doesn’t change, your life won’t change.”
She paused for a moment, then added, “We still believe in people.”
