Days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proposed building a network of allies, including in the Middle East and Africa, to counter what he called “radical” adversaries, the country’s president is paying an official visit to key ally Ethiopia.
It is still unclear which Arab and African countries will form part of the “hexagonal alliance” envisaged by Netanyahu, which he said Sunday would include Israel, India, Greece, Cyprus and others to counter enemies in the Middle East. Perhaps the most potent of those enemies is Iran and its network of resistance groups, from Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Yemen’s Houthis.
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Analysts question whether Israel will be able to secure enough influence over the nation-state to form a formal security agreement.
However, the African Union (AU) has issued multiple statements condemning Israeli attacks on Palestinian civilians, deepening its ongoing charm offensive in Africa that began during the massacre in Gaza, as its reputation on the continent has suffered.
In an unusual visit, Israeli President Isaac Herzog arrived in Ethiopia on Tuesday. The last visit by a president to the East African country took place in 2018.
“The relations between our peoples are deeply woven into the pages of history and human tradition,” Herzog said in a statement upon his arrival. “At the heart of our two countries’ stories lies a clear common thread: our ability to join hands, integrate our resources of spirit and material, and innovate, develop and grow for the benefit of all.”
Herzog said he met Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Wednesday and the two leaders discussed “ways to improve cooperation in areas of mutual interest,” without providing further details.
But behind the scenes, observers say the visit is also a battle for influence with Addis Ababa, which has recently hosted similar high-level delegations from Turkiye and Saudi Arabia.
Share the bond, share the anger
Ethiopia and Israel are linked by several ties, from the shared history of their peoples to their shared oversight of recent political developments in the Horn of Africa that have angered some of the region’s most powerful countries.
The two countries owe much of their friendship to the Beta Israel community, or Ethiopian Jews, from northern Tigray and Amhara. Historically, Ethiopian Jews suffered religious persecution and sought immigration under the Law of Return policy after the establishment of the state of Israel. From the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, tens of thousands of Ethiopian Jews were secretly deported to Israel when several African countries, including Ethiopia, severed ties with Israel over the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the invasion of Egypt. Just before Ethiopia’s civil war began in 1991, the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad launched a daring operation to airlift 14,000 Ethiopians in just two days.
Approximately 160,000 Ethiopian Jews currently live in Israel. Many within the community struggle to integrate and complain of discrimination and racism. In 2019, tens of thousands of Ethiopian Jews took to the streets in Israeli cities in protest after a 19-year-old Ethiopian boy was shot and killed by police.
Meanwhile, national relations between Ethiopia and Israel remain stable. When Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the country in 2016 on his first prime ministerial visit, Addis Ababa became one of the first African countries to express support for Israel’s long-sought observer status in the AU. The process was postponed until 2021 due to strong opposition from South Africa, Algeria and other countries supporting Palestine. Later, in 2023, the AU confirmed that Palestine’s status had been withdrawn.
While Israeli aid agency Mashab has provided aid to Ethiopia in the form of agricultural and water cooperation projects for the past decade, Addis Ababa receives far more funding from wealthy partners like China. When Israel sponsored several African journalists on a media trip to the country last year, Ethiopia was one of the countries that invited journalists.
More recently, both countries have been bound by their support for Somaliland, which Somalia claims as part of its territory and Israel considers important to its national security, Hargeisa-based analyst Mustafa Ahmad told Al Jazeera.
In December, Israel recognized Somaliland’s statehood, making it the first country to do so. Months earlier, there were unconfirmed talks about plans to relocate displaced Palestinians to Somaliland or South Sudan, another key Israeli ally in the region. Analysts speculate that countries such as South Sudan and the United Arab Emirates, another close friend of Israel, may also recognize Somaliland.
Israel’s focus on the Horn of Africa further intensified following a late 2024 report by a UN panel of experts that found Somalia-based militant group al-Shabaab actively collaborating with Yemen’s Houthis. The Houthis provided weapons and drone training, and in return al-Shabab granted them access to a smuggling corridor that stretches along Somalia’s coast and connects to the Gulf of Aden, allowing them to smuggle Iranian weapons into Yemen.
Analysts therefore point out that the move to recognize Somaliland was intended to disrupt that cooperation by stationing an Israeli naval base in the region.
“Even if they don’t say it publicly, it’s part of their calculation,” Ahmad said.
Several countries, like the AU, have opposed Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a violation of Somaliland’s sovereignty. But many in Somaliland are celebrating the move.
Addis Ababa under pressure
Neither Israel nor Ethiopia have released details of Herzog’s agenda during his visit, but Somaliland is likely to be at the top of the list.
In 2024, Addis Ababa reportedly infuriated its neighbors by signing a controversial port deal with Hargeisa that would give it access to the sea in exchange for Somaliland’s future recognition. Despite extensive and rapid industrialization, Ethiopia is a landlocked country and lost access to the sea after Eritrea’s withdrawal in 1993. Prime Minister Abiy has often said that access to the sea is extremely important for his country.
The conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia was so serious that analysts were warning of the possibility of armed conflict between the neighbors until Turkiye, Mogadishu’s main development partner, intervened to defuse the situation, pressuring Addis Ababa to coordinate with Mogadishu on its behalf.
Analysts say Israel now wants to push Ethiopia further toward recognition of Somaliland, which boasts 850 kilometers (528 miles) of coastline. In Hargeisa, Ahmad said many people were disappointed because more countries did not comply with Israel’s measures.
However, Addis Ababa may not welcome further pressure at this time as it faces increasing regional isolation on many fronts.
One of the main reasons is the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Egypt and Sudan claim is blocking water supplies needed for irrigation.
The dam, a source of national pride for Ethiopians, was funded almost entirely by public donations and government funds. Israeli engineers were involved in the project, and amid tensions with neighboring countries, Israel reportedly sold arms to Ethiopia to protect the dam, although the Israeli government denies this.
At the same time, Addis Ababa is also facing tensions with Eritrea, which has moved closer to Somalia and Egypt. The two countries have a historical feud, with tensions recently rising again over the 2020 Tigray war and Prime Minister Abi’s repeated statements that his country needs access to the seas.
“Addis Ababa is wary of making decisions that would cement its regional isolation at this time.” [because] “There is clearly risk avoidance among the various actors seeking to influence the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region,” Ahmad said.
Pressure on Addis Ababa is also increasing from countries that want to maintain the status quo.
On Sunday, Turkiye President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Ethiopia and said in a speech: “I would like to emphasize that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland will not benefit Somaliland or the Horn of Africa.”
His comments sparked a backlash from Hargeisa, which called them “unacceptable interference” aimed at destroying relations between Somaliland and its partners.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which has an ongoing rift with the United Arab Emirates over its handling of the conflict in Yemen, intervened in the conflict in February. Deputy Foreign Minister Walid El-Kheleij was in Addis Ababa this week to discuss “regional peace,” just two weeks after Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud arrived in Addis Ababa for talks with Mr. Abiy.
So far, it is unclear whether Riyadh has had any success in influencing Addis Ababa.
It is still unclear how Israel will respond in this regard.
