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Home » Volatility, tuberculosis and regulation threaten dairy growth, industry leaders say
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Volatility, tuberculosis and regulation threaten dairy growth, industry leaders say

Bussiness InsightsBy Bussiness InsightsFebruary 27, 2026No Comments4 Mins Read
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The future of Britain’s dairy industry depends on fair contracts, stable regulation and decisive government action, NFU leaders have warned, as farmers face instability, labor shortages and increasing disease pressures.

Speaking at the NFU conference, Dairy Products Commission Chairman Paul Tompkins presented a tough challenge to governments and supply chain partners, arguing that confidence in investment will only return if structural issues are addressed.

Rather than reflecting on the outgoing board’s two-year term, he focused firmly on what must change to ensure the sector’s long-term prosperity.

He said price fluctuations and uncertainty around milk yields were making it difficult for farmers to build, expand herds and borrow money, while rising costs related to potential environmental permitting rules were already discouraging investment and forcing some producers to exit the industry.

The intervention comes as tight profit margins and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on dairy operations, with succession concerns and labor shortages adding to the strain on family farms.

Tompkins also questioned whether fair dealing reforms are truly reshaping behavior in supply chains, pointing to contracts and practices that remain inconsistent with regulations.

He stressed that trade negotiations must continue to advance UK dairy exports without compromising domestic standards.

Bovine tuberculosis also remains a major concern. Mr Tompkins criticized the policy vacuum following the government’s decision to scrap wildlife management, saying the situation was “totally unacceptable” given the economic and emotional burden the disease places on farmers.

Dairy industry leaders discussed volatility, regulation and TB challenges at a meeting (Photo: NFU)

Dairy industry leaders discussed volatility, regulation and TB challenges at a meeting (Photo: NFU)

The sector is calling on governments for a stable, long-term regulatory and investment framework, alongside support for industry-led alternatives to environmental permits.

Tompkins called for trade deals to expand export opportunities, stronger fair trade rules and expanded powers for agricultural supply chain examiners to investigate contract compliance.

He also called on ministers to publish a revamped tuberculosis strategy to help farmers and veterinarians better manage tackling infections within their herds.

Meanwhile, processors and retailers were asked to “build honest partnerships”.[s]” We are building relationships with producers through transparent contracts, clearer volume signals, and a willingness to share both risk and reward.

Tompkins encouraged farmers themselves to work more closely together on purchasing, marketing, labor and investment.

“These are tough times, but the fundamentals are still on our side. People will continue to consume dairy products,” he said. Britain’s “diverse institutions, climate, skills and standards give us a strong foundation”.

He added that with the right framework around regulation, trade and supply chain practices, the UK dairy industry “has every reason to be confident about the future”.

A panel discussion featuring regional board chairs Ian Harvey, Rob Davies, Matt Ford and Graham Young raised concerns about milk oversupply, the fairness of contracts, AHDB’s marketing priorities and the vulnerabilities of just-in-time supply chains.

Exploring alternatives to tuberculosis and badger control also dominated the discussion, with speakers highlighting the need for policies to keep pace with new scientific solutions.

The environmental permit proposal has sparked a lively debate. Davis questioned whether this approach would yield better results than innovations such as techniques that remove nutrients.

Environment Agency chairman Alan Lovell told delegates that the system in place for dairy and livestock would be selective and designed to reward good performance, and would operate differently to existing rules for the pig and poultry sectors.

He suggested that “we don’t need to go there if we can develop industry initiatives that achieve the same results,” but warned that progress must be swift.

Tompkins acknowledged dairy’s role in reducing pollution, noting that it was measured differently than other sectors and “there was some nuance to the numbers.”

He welcomed the possibility that permits would not be universally imposed, adding that cooperation could provide an effective alternative.

Whether that alternative emerges and how quickly policy clarity emerges could be decisive in determining whether the UK dairy industry enters the next phase with renewed confidence or continued uncertainty.

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