President Donald Trump threatened to impose “very strict tariffs” on Monday if the peace agreement to end the Ukrainian war did not reach the next 50 days.
Trump has also announced a new agreement to supply more weapons to Ukraine.
On the campaign trail ahead of last year’s presidential election, Trump boasted that he would end the war in Ukraine within his first 24 hours.
However, after at least six telephone conversations between Trump and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, as well as several meetings with US officials and officials in Russia and Ukrainian, the ceasefire contract was not reached.
In May, Putin refused to travel to Istanbul and met with Ukrainian President Voldy Milzelensky for peace negotiations. Both countries sent delegations instead, thus bringing only prisoner exchange contracts.
So will Trump’s latest threat persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to change his stance on Ukraine?
What did Trump say about Russia and Ukraine this week?
Weapons for Ukraine
In a meeting with NATO executive director-general Mark Latte in his oval office on Monday, Trump was “disappointed” in Putin, saying Ukraine would receive billions of dollars worth of US weapons.
“We’re going to make the best weapons. They’ll be sent to NATO,” Trump said, adding that NATO will pay them. He added that this includes the Patriot Air Defence Missiles that Ukraine urgently sought.
“We have one country where 17 patriots are ready to be shipped. We’re going to have a deal where 17 people go, or the majority of the 17 people go to the grounds of war,” Trump said.
New tariffs on Russian goods
Trump said that if Putin fails to sign a peace agreement with Ukraine within 50 days of this Monday, he will impose “very strict” trade tariffs on Russia and secondary tariffs on other countries.
“We’re going to put in secondary tariffs,” Trump said. “If there’s no trade within 50 days, it’s very easy and it’s 100%.”
Since the start of the Ukrainian War, the US and its allies have imposed at least 21,692 separate sanctions on Russian individuals, media organizations and agencies, targeting sectors including military, energy, aviation, shipbuilding and communications.
Although US-Russia’s trade ties may be relatively small, “secondary tariffs” (first threatened by Trump in March but not in place) affect countries that buy Russian oil, such as India and China.
In 2024, Russian oil accounted for 35% of India’s total imports and 19% of China’s oil imports. Torkier also relies heavily on Russian oil, raising up to 58% of sophisticated oil imports from Russia in 2023.
Some Western countries could also suffer secondary tariffs. In 2024, European countries spent more than $700 million on Russian uranium products, according to an analysis by Brussels-based think tank Brugel. According to an analysis using data from Eurostat, the European Union’s Statistics Bureau.
How has Russia responded to Trump’s latest threat?
Putin has not responded personally.
But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday: “The US President’s statement is very serious. Some of them have been addressed personally to President Putin. We need time to analyze what we’re told in Washington.”
However, Peskov said decisions made in Washington and other NATO countries are “recognised by the Ukrainian side as signaling the continued war, not as a signal of peace.”
Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and current vice-chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote in an X post on Tuesday that Russia doesn’t care about Trump’s “theater ultimate.”
Trump has issued the theatrical ultimate to the Kremlin.
The world was shaking and hoping for results.
The warlike Europe was disappointed.
Russia didn’t care.– Dmitry Medvedev (@medvedevrussiae) July 15, 2025
Sergei Lyabukov, a senior Russian diplomat, said on Tuesday: “We note first and foremost that the demands, especially the ultimate attempt, are unacceptable to us,” reported Russian TASS News Agency.
Russian stock markets do not appear to be plagued by the Trump threat, rising 2.7% on Monday, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange.
The Russian ruble initially lost its value against the US dollar, but recovered after Trump threatened new tariffs against Russia. According to data from the Financial Analysis Group LSEG, Ruble traded at 78.10 in the US dollar after just under 0.2% at the end of the day to 78.10.
The ruble reached 0.9% against the Chinese Yuan, Russia’s most traded foreign currency. This came after a decline of more than 1% on Friday.
Will US weapons support Ukraine significantly?
Marina Milon, a postdoctoral researcher in the Defense Research Division of King’s College London, said that Trump promised to sell to Ukraine, the patriot missile system was a Russian Iskander M.
“But Ukraine will need a short to medium range system and multiple rocket launchers to protect itself. So that’s more like a political move for Trump than anything else,” Miron said.
She added that the importance of these weapons depends on several factors, including whether Ukraine will acquire the 17 systems that are allegedly promised, and where the systems will be placed.
How has Trump changed his attitude towards supporting Ukraine?
A month after his term as president, Trump posted on his true social platform, denounced Zelensky for continuing his war with Russia, saying that the Ukrainian president “spent $350 billion on the United States and failed to enter a war that he couldn’t win.”
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the US has helped about $134 billion so far, rather than $3500 billion so far.
Trump’s Maga (which makes America great again) base is also critical of the US funding to Ukraine.
In early July, the Trump administration announced its decision to “suspend” the delivery of weapons to Kiev, but overturned this a week later. When Trump announced the comeback on July 8th, his supporters expressed criticism.
Derrick Evans, one of Trump’s supporters who stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 and was later arrested but was forgiven by Trump this January, wrote to X: Conservative social media duo Keith and Kevin Hodge posted on X: “Who’s telling Trump needs to send more weapons to Ukraine?”
Trump appears to be trying to deal with these criticisms by saying he would sell to NATO instead of supplying arms to Ukraine.
Additionally, Miron said the US has lost nothing by selling weapons as NATO pays them. “We don’t have enough systems to make a substantial difference,” she said.
Will Trump’s latest threat force Putin to change his policies?
President Putin has repeatedly expressed his determination to achieve his war objectives, but he has not specifically stated what they are. Overall, he seeks the interests of the territory within Ukraine and opposes Ukrainian membership in NATO. According to the observers, these have not changed and it is unlikely to do so.
“If you’re going to explain the Russian approach, it’s to “keep calm and keep it up,” Miron said.
“So they’re not going to go to this information trap,” she said.
Has Putin changed his stance at all since Russia invaded Ukraine?
Milon said Putin had expanded his target since his major cross-border invasion into the Kursk region last August, which was beyond Ukraine’s major borders. Ukrainian push towards Kursk surprised the Kremlin, but marked the most important Ukrainian attack within Russian territory since the start of the war.
According to Kyrylo Budanov, director of the Ukrainian military intelligence report, in May this year, Russian forces were tasked with establishing a buffer zone that could extend up to 10km (6 miles) in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
“I have already stated that the decision has been made to create the necessary security buffer zones along the border. Our troops are now solving this issue. The enemy’s fire points are actively restrained and work is ongoing,” Putin said.
While Putin did not provide much details as to what the buffer zone would involve, Russian General Victor Sobolev said he would allow Russia to drive Ukrainian long-range missiles out of impressive range, Ukrainian media reported.
