Boeing Dreamliner crash, military escalations darken Paris Air Show

Kelly Ortberg’s first Paris Air Show as Boeing CEO was set to be relatively upbeat.

Under his leadership that began in August, the company has made strides in ramping up production of its bestselling 737 Max jets, increasing cash-generating deliveries of new planes, and indicating that it’s turning a corner from a series of manufacturing and safety crises and years of lost ground to rival Airbus. Shares are up more than 13% this year, outpacing the S&P 500.

But after an Air India flight crashed on Thursday, marking the first fatal air disaster of a Boeing Dreamliner, Ortberg canceled plans to go to the massive air show that begins on Sunday.

The trade event is a big draw for the industry and is held every other year, alternating with the Farnborough Air Show in the U.K. Boeing, Airbus and other aerospace giants host champagne-flowing parties, hold flashy deal-signing ceremonies with executives flanked by model planes, and show off their new aircraft with extreme maneuvers for spectators below.

“As our industry prepares to start the Paris Air Show, Stephanie and I have both canceled plans to attend so we can be with our team, and focus on our customer and the investigation,” Ortberg said in a note to employees late Thursday, referring to Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stephanie Pope.

All but one of the 242 people aboard Air India Flight 171 were killed when the more than 11-year-old Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner that was headed for London on a sweltering day crashed into a medical student dining hall seconds after takeoff from Ahmedabad in western India. The sole survivor was an India-born British national in seat 11A.

The cause of the crash is unknown and will take weeks or months to determine. Questions focus on how the plane so quickly and evenly lost altitude, appearing to glide into a fireball crash. Cockpit voice and data recorders, known as “black boxes,” will provide key information.

“It is important that we do not speculate about the accident and let the investigators do their work,” Ortberg wrote.

The plane’s engine maker, GE Aerospace, said it will postpone an investor day scheduled for Tuesday.

The crash isn’t the only outside factor changing the gathering in Paris.

Shortly before the Paris Air Show was set to begin, Israel launched overnight missile strikes on Iran. Hours later, Iran launched drones toward Israeli territory. Airlines canceled flights, with jets in the air diverting or returning to their destinations, while hundreds of others skirted the airspace.

The escalating tensions will make military budgets and spending an even bigger focus for the air show, but they also raise concerns about how conflicts and geopolitical tensions could impact demand for commercial air travel.

Despite the crash and other external concerns, Boeing, Airbus and Embraer are expected to lock in hundreds of airplane orders. Wait times for popular new aircraft models already stretch into the next decade with demand still strong.

Boeing forecast on Saturday that the world will need 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next two decades, with emerging markets driving growth. It expects those markets will account for more than half of the world’s fleet in 2044, up from a 40% share last year.

Some of the order signings could come from previously undisclosed customers, though there are many new orders on the line, aviation analysts say.

Ongoing issues, such as a lack of trained workers, have delayed deliveries of new planes, while on-again, off-again tariffs have raised concerns about more expensive aircraft and components.

Pricing has also firmed up. A new Airbus A321neo was going for $65 million as of the end of April, up from $58 million at the start of 2023, while a new Boeing 737 Max 8 cost about $55.5 million in April, compared with $50.25 million in early 2023, according to Ishka an aviation data and advisory firm.

With aircraft still in short supply, lease rates are also going up for older planes for airlines that prefer not to make multimillion-dollar aircraft purchases up front or that might need them for shorter time periods. A 12-year-old Boeing 737 costs $241,000 a month to rent as of the end of April, up nearly 42% from two years earlier, and an Airbus A320 of the same age was $239,000 a month, a 50% gain, according to IBA Insight, another aviation data firm.

U.K.-based IBA predicted manufacturers could see between 700 and 800 commercial aircraft orders during the Paris show, a tally that includes firm orders, options, and looser commitments like purchase intention letters and memoranda of understanding.

Customers could include Ethiopian Airlines and Polish carrier Lot, as well as Vietnam Airlines, AirAsia, Royal Air Maroc, Etihad and Saudi carrier Riyadh, said Ishka.

“A large deal from China is inevitable sometime, for replacement if not growth reasons,” Ishka said in a note last week.

Air India, which Ishka had previously listed as a potential customer, was no longer expected to buy new planes given last week’s tragedy.

Airplane customers are going bigger as international travel continues to bring in money.

“It used to be all about single-aisle orders,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at aerospace consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory. Now, “everyone is booking these monster twin-aisle orders for international traffic.”

He said major international airlines like Turkish Airlines, Gulf carriers and others have expanded in recent years, competing for more global travelers, “slicing the pizza into smaller pieces.”

Since orders are placed years in advance, Aboulafia said he doesn’t expect a big impact on demand because of the crash, though some might be held back during the show.

“It’s a terrible tragedy. It doesn’t make anyone’s lives easier,” he said. “I just don’t think given what we know now it has anything to do with the design or the build of the airplane. It sure doesn’t look like it.”