Tensions are rising along the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border in Central Asia, with Tajikistan’s government reporting multiple armed incursions this month and straining its fragile relationship with Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders.
More than a dozen people were killed in the attack by men described by Tajik authorities as “terrorists” and subsequent clashes with Tajik military, officials in Dushanbe and Beijing said. The victims included Chinese nationals working in remote areas of the mountainous former Soviet republic.
Recent fighting this week left at least five people dead, including “three terrorists,” in Tajikistan’s Shamsiddin Shokhin district, officials said.
Tajikistan has long opposed the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, with which it shares a 1,340 km (830 mile) largely unsecured border.
Analysts said the frequency of recent border clashes risks undermining the Taliban’s credibility and calls into question its ability to enforce order and security, despite careful diplomatic engagement between the two countries to adapt to new regional realities.
Here’s what we know about the clashes along the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border and why it matters.
What is happening on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border?
The border runs along the Panj River through remote mountainous areas of southern Tajikistan and northeastern Afghanistan.
On Thursday, Tajikistan’s State Security Committee announced in a statement that “three members of a terrorist organization” entered Tajik territory on Tuesday. The commission added that the men were found the next morning and engaged in a gunfight with Tajik border guards. Five people, including three intruders, were killed.
Tajik officials did not release the names of the militants or their group affiliations. However, officials said they seized three M-16 rifles, a Kalashnikov assault rifle, three foreign-made handguns with silencers, 10 hand grenades, a night vision scope and explosives at the scene.
Dushanbe said this was the third attack in the past month originating from Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province that resulted in the death of its personnel.
Tajikistan officials said Thursday that the attacks “demonstrate serious and repeated irresponsibility and non-commitment by the Taliban government in fulfilling its commitments consistent with its international obligations to ensure security and combat members of terrorist organizations.”
Tajikistan’s statement called on the Taliban to “apologize to the people of Tajikistan and take effective measures to ensure security along our shared border.”
Tajikistan has not disclosed the motive for the attack, but it appears it targeted Chinese companies and citizens working in the region.
How is China involved in all this?
Beijing is Tajikistan’s largest creditor and one of its economic partners with significant influence over infrastructure, mining and other border projects.
China and Tajikistan also share a 477-kilometer (296-mile) border that runs through the high-altitude Pamir Mountains in eastern Tajikistan, bordering China’s Xinjiang region.
Two attacks were launched against Chinese companies and citizens in the last week of November. On November 26, three Chinese nationals were killed when an explosive-equipped drone attacked the premises of a private Chinese gold mining company, Shouhin SM, in the remote Khatron region on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border.
In a second attack on November 30, a group of gunmen opened fire on workers at the state-run China Road and Bridge Corporation in Tajikistan’s Darboz region, killing at least two people.
Tajik officials said the attacks originated from villages in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, but did not specify the affiliation or motive behind the attacks.
Chinese nationals have also been attacked in Pakistan’s Balochistan province and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
The Chinese embassy in Dushanbe advised Chinese companies and personnel to evacuate border areas. It called on Chinese authorities to “take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of Chinese companies and citizens in Tajikistan.”
Who is running these attacks?
Although the attackers have not been identified, analysts and observers say the attack has characteristics of the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS) affiliate group (ISKP) and is aimed at discrediting Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership.
“ISKP attacks foreign nationals in Afghanistan and has made attacks against foreign nationals in Afghanistan a key pillar of its strategy,” said Ibraheem Bahis, an analyst at the Kabul-based think tank International Crisis Group.
“The aim is to shatter the Taliban’s image as a security provider that local governments should be involved in,” Bahis told Al Jazeera.
How did the Taliban respond to these attacks?
Kabul expressed “deep sadness” over the November 28 killing of a Chinese worker.
The Taliban blamed the violence on anonymous armed groups “trying to create chaos and instability in the region and sow mistrust between countries” and pledged Tajikistan’s full cooperation.
After this week’s clashes, Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani said Kabul remained committed to the 2020 Doha Accord, an agreement with the United States on the phased withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan in exchange for the Taliban’s commitment to prevent Afghanistan from being used as a base for attacks on other countries.
Speaking at the graduation ceremony of police cadets at the police academy in Kabul on Thursday, Haqqani said Afghanistan posed no threat to other countries and the door to dialogue remained open.
“We want to address problems, mistrust and misunderstandings through dialogue. We have overcome the challenges of confrontation. Our resources may be weak, but our beliefs and our will are strong,” he said, adding that security had improved to the extent that Taliban officials were moving around the country without weapons.
The Taliban insists there are no “terrorist groups” operating from Afghanistan. However, the UN Sanctions Monitoring Committee in a recent report mentioned the presence of multiple armed groups, including ISKP, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Taliban, al-Qaeda, Turkestan Islamic Party, Jamaat Ansarullah, and Pakistan Ittehadul Mujahideen.
Jamaat Ansarullah is a Tajik group associated with al-Qaeda-linked networks, primarily active in northern Afghanistan near the Tajik border.
What is the relationship between Tajikistan and the Taliban?
For decades, relations between Tajikistan and the Taliban have been defined by deep ideological hostility and ethnic mistrust with Dushanbe, the Taliban’s fiercest critic in Central Asia.
In the 1990s, Tajikistan allied with the Northern Alliance against the Taliban, led by Afghan military commander and former defense minister Ahmad Shah Massoud.
After the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, Tajikistan was the only neighboring country to refuse to recognize the new government.
However, real diplomatic engagement quietly began around 2023, driven by economic necessity and shared security concerns about ISKP’s existence. In order to strengthen relations, a high-level delegation from the Tajik government visited Kabul in November, the first such visit since the Taliban returned to power.
However, the governments of both countries continue to exchange accusations that the other is harboring “terrorists”, which remains a major problem in bilateral relations, and that drug smuggling is occurring across the border.
The Tajikistan-Afghanistan border has long been a major trafficking route for Afghan heroin and methamphetamine into Central Asia and beyond into Russia and Europe, taking advantage of the region’s rugged terrain and weak police enforcement.
“Increasing frequency [of the clashes] “This is new and interesting and raises the issue that new threats may be emerging,” Bahis said.
Badakhshan province, which Tajik authorities say is the epicenter of attacks on Chinese nationals, presents a complex security situation for the Taliban, which is struggling to contain the insurgent threat, Bahis added.
He said the security issue was further complicated by the Taliban’s crackdown on poppy cultivation in the province. The Taliban faces resistance from farmers in the north to this policy. This is mainly because the topography of Badakhshan makes poppy the only viable cash crop.
What kind of relationship does the Taliban have with other neighboring countries?
Since the Taliban took back control of Afghanistan in 2021, some of the neighboring countries have maintained viable business relations, while others have not.
Relations have particularly deteriorated with Pakistan, which was previously a supporter of the country. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring fighters from the Tehreek Taliban, also known as the Pakistani Taliban. Tensions over the issue boiled over in November when Pakistan launched airstrikes in Kabul, Khost and other provinces, prompting retaliatory Taliban attacks on border crossings.
Dozens of people were killed before Qatar and Turkiye brokered a ceasefire. But since then, both sides have continued to fight, accusing each other of breaking the fragile ceasefire.
The Taliban deny Islamabad’s claims and blame Pakistan for “security failures”.
Meanwhile, the Taliban are now investing in building new ties with Pakistan’s arch-rival India, with delegations visiting Indian cities for discussions on trade and security. New Delhi has long been part of the anti-Taliban alliance. But that approach changed as relations between Pakistan and the Taliban deteriorated.
