Farmers could face an increase in invasive pests in the UK as rising temperatures make it easier for new species to thrive, the Met Office has warned.
The group said warming temperatures make it more likely that harmful insects will survive, spread and become established, posing serious risks to agriculture and forestry.
The warning comes after 2025 was confirmed as the UK’s warmest year on record, with an average annual temperature of 10.09C, the highest since 1884.
It is also the second year that average temperatures in the UK have exceeded 10C, highlighting the scale of recent climate change.
Dr Debbie Hemming, a Met Office scientist leading research into the relationship between climate and nature, said changes were already occurring in the conditions under which pests thrive.
“Warmer weather and recent extreme events are causing many species to relocate to areas that were previously too cold,” she says.
“This also includes pests that previously could not survive in the UK.”
She warned that the large number of new arrivals posed a “significant risk” to agriculture, forestry and natural habitats.
“As the climate changes, we can expect further new arrivals,” she added.
To support experts in their response, Met Office scientists have worked with Defra’s Plant Health Risk and Horizon Scan teams to develop the UK Climate Pest Risk web tool.
This tool helps assess which pests are most likely to survive under future UK climate conditions, supporting the development of effective prevention and management plans.
Currently, we are targeting nine high-risk pests that affect agriculture and forestry, including the Colorado potato beetle, peach potato aphid, and stink bug.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said the spread of such pests could increase crop losses, pressure control costs and create new challenges for growers and land managers.
One recent high-profile success has been the targeted eradication of the Colorado potato beetle from the UK, a serious threat to potato crops.
Dr Hemming said climate modeling could play an important role in strengthening resilience.
“Modeling and mapping the climate sensitivity of high-risk pest species such as the Colorado potato beetle can help inform effective management actions that are already building resilience against emerging pests in the agriculture and forestry sectors,” she said.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said the pest threat is one of a growing problem linked to the twin pressures of climate change and biodiversity loss.
These challenges will be discussed at the 12th annual meeting of IPBES, the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, in Manchester this week.
Meteorological Agency scientists are attending the conference to strengthen collaboration with biodiversity experts and highlight the need to tackle the climate and nature crises together.
The group said early monitoring, swift action and stronger cooperation were essential to protect agriculture, forestry and ecosystems as the UK continues to warm.
Additionally, with the increasing threat of new species establishing themselves, growers are encouraged to stay alert for sightings of unusual pests and report concerns promptly.
