“At a time when the global economy is fragmenting, Mr. Carney needs to make clear that Canada is different and remains interested in rules-based trade and globalization,” said Bina Najibulla, vice president of the Canada Asia Pacific Foundation. Canada signed a trade deal with Indonesia last month, aiming to establish duty-free access to up to 95 per cent of goods exported to Indonesia next year.
Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu told Reuters that Canada is currently seeking deals with the Philippines, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.
In addition to attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Mr. Carney will also visit Singapore for talks and attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference in South Korea.
Trump will depart for Malaysia late Friday night and will meet with Xi in South Korea next Thursday, the White House said.
Although Prime Minister John Carney has said he wants to diversify exports over the next 10 years, Canada remains dependent on the United States for about 75% of its exports.
Fenn Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa, said there are far greater business opportunities for Canada in Asia than in Europe, and Carney has visited Europe three times since becoming prime minister in March.
“Southeast Asia’s economies are much more dynamic and compatible than Canada in terms of energy and merchandise trade,” Hampson said. But he noted that any agreement Canada enters into with China will necessarily depend on the geopolitical dynamic between the United States and China. “As tensions between the U.S. and China rise, Prime Minister Carney will have less room to maneuver,” Hampson said.
For example, he thought it would be difficult for Canada and China to resolve tariff disputes over rapeseed and electric cars without improving relations between the two world powers.
“There’s a lot of pressure on the American side not to make concessions to what they perceive to be their rivals,” Hampson said.
Former banker raises hopes for improved relations
Most Canadians are also wary of getting close to China. A poll conducted this month by Angus Reid and the Canada Asia-Pacific Foundation found that 59 per cent of those surveyed still view China negatively, and just 14 per cent think Canada should seek closer economic ties. Relations between Canada and China deteriorated during the prime ministership of Mr. Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau. Canadian citizens have been detained and secretly murdered by the Chinese government, Canadian security officials have concluded that China interfered in at least two federal elections, and Xi Jinping has publicly rebuked Prime Minister Trudeau for leaking discussions to the press.
Analysts say Mr. Carney’s background as a former central bank governor and international experience give him greater credibility that his predecessors often lacked.
Mr. Carney spoke with Chinese Premier Li Qiang last month and said he planned to meet with China’s senior leadership soon to “see how the trade relationship develops.”
Still, in a region where rituals and customs are highly valued, the prime minister may need to tread carefully.
“Whatever agreement there is, what’s equally important is how Mr. Carney aligns with Mr. Xi Jinping,” said Isaac Stone Fish, CEO of Strategy Risks, a business intelligence firm specializing in China.
“Looking like you’re literally bowing down to Mr. Xi would make you look weak, and Mr. Carney certainly knows the importance of optics.”
(Reporting by Maria Cheng; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Marguerita Choy)
