S&P Global Commodity Insights raises outlook for 10 years of oil sand production for the fourth consecutive year
Calgary, AB, June 24, 2025 /PRNewswire / – S&P Global Commodity Insights has raised the 10-year production outlook for Canadian oil sands. The latest forecasts show that oil sand production will reach a record average production of 3.5 million b/d in 2025, exceeding 3.9 million b/d by 2030. It’s 1 million barrels more expensive than 2024.
The new forecast, created by the S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue, is a four-straight upward revision of the annual outlook. As producers continue to focus on maximizing existing assets through investments in optimization and efficiency, the analysis attributes an increase in forecasts to favorable economics despite the decline in the oil price environment.
Bringing a new Oil Sands project online requires large upfront spending over several years, but once completed, the project enjoys a relatively low break-even price.
S&P Global Commodity Insights’ half-cycle break in oil sand production in 2025 ranges from $18 to $45 on a WTI basis, with an average overall intrusion of about $27/b. *.
“The increased trajectory of Canadian oil sand production growth during the period of oil price volatility reflects producers’ emphasis on optimization and the favorable economics that underpinned such operations.” “Over 3.8 million barrels per day of existing installation capabilities have come online since 2001 and 2017. This large resource base provides enough space for producers to spot debott renec opportunities, reduce downtime and increase throughput.”
Analysis suggests that it may exist considering the nature of the optimization project and the nature of the optimization project.
Celina Hwang, director of crude oil markets at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said: “This dynamic adds to the elasticity of oil sand production and the ability to grow through periods of price volatility.”
The outlook continues to hope that oil sand production will enter the plateau in the next decade. However, this is expected to occur at higher levels of production than previously estimated. New forecasts show that oil sand production will be 3.7 million b/d in 2035, 100,000 b/d higher than previous forecasts.
Export capacity is a concern in recent years and is responsible for the negative side risk of expected growth in more production. Without further increasing pipeline capacity, export constraints could re-emerge as soon as next year, the analysis says.
“While the low prices in 2025 and the potential pipeline export constraints are a downside risk to this outlook, oil sands have proven to be able to withstand extreme price volatility in the past,” Fan said. “The cost of declining producers’ ability to manage existing projects and past challenging situations supports the resilience of this outlook.”
*Half-cycle break-even costs include operating costs, costs for purchasing diluents (if necessary), and adjustments to allow comparisons with WTI, especially the difference between heavy oil and light weight transportation costs, OK, and high quality.
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Source S&P Global Commodity Insights
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