Record-breaking Christmas shops have sent a clear signal back through the supply chain, with lamb, pork and dairy emerging as festive winners, with turkey being hit hard.
Grocery sales hit a new high of £13.8bn in Christmas 2025, as shoppers spent an average of £476 per person in supermarkets over the Christmas period. New figures from AHDB suggest food remains a Christmas priority for consumers, despite continuing cost pressures.
Nearly half of shoppers said they were planning to cut back on their overall festive spending, but food was still considered a “sheltered spend” alongside children’s presents and Christmas trees. Total food volume increased by 1.1% in the four weeks to 28 December 2025, highlighting the resilience of seasonal food demand.
For livestock producers, the data shows a strong performance for red meat. Meat, fish and poultry sales volumes increased across the board, with festive red meat cuts outperforming the broader grocery market.
Turkey was an obvious casualty of Christmas 2025. Demand for whole birds and primary cuts declined sharply, with primary turkey volumes down 12.0% year-over-year.
The continued exodus from whole birds suggests this may reflect a long-term shift in Christmas buying habits, adding further pressure to an already difficult market for producers.
In contrast, Lam has seen a remarkable turnaround after a down year. In the two peak Christmas shopping weeks ending December 28, leg roasters increased their lamb purchases by 24.7%.
AHDB said targeted promotions were particularly effective, with shoppers responding to the appeal of value-oriented deals and traditional festival centerpieces, providing some reassurance to producers.
Beef roasters also experienced increased demand, with sales volume increasing by 8.6% over the same period. Roasted pork shoulder joints recorded the largest increase, with purchases increasing by 43.7%. This highlighted increased consumer interest in slow cooking and lower prices during the holiday period.
Dairy producers also benefited from a strong Christmas finish. There were an additional 504,000 cheese buying opportunities in the run-up to Christmas, with cow cheese volumes up 4.4% year-on-year.
Growth was driven by cheddar cheese, which, along with Stilton cheese, British blue cheese and snack cheese, reinforced the importance of cheese boards in Christmas celebrations.
Cream and butter continued to be seasonal staples. The amount of cream in cows increased by 1.6%, reflecting its role in festive desserts, and the amount of butter in cows increased by 3.4%. Block butter performed particularly well, with volumes increasing by 6.9%. This was probably driven by its use in festive baking and cheese boards.
AHDB’s retail and consumer insights analyst Charlotte Foulkes-Rees said the figures highlight changing Christmas traditions, which are having an impact on producers.
“While it’s clear Brits aren’t tired of cheese boards just yet, red meat sales this season suggest consumers are changing up their Christmas centrepieces, and we expect more people to explore alternatives to turkey in 2026.”
She added that Christmas remained an important occasion for British produce. “In December 2025, 92% of shoppers’ baskets will contain premium own-label products, highlighting shoppers’ willingness to splurge on treats at Christmas,” he said, underscoring the importance of emphasizing luxury and added value.
For producers, the Christmas period continues to provide some of the clearest indicators of changes in consumer demand, and festive performance is likely to influence production and marketing decisions into 2026.
