AHDB’s latest Crop Development Report says the outlook for the UK’s 2026 winter crop is “very good”, with solid establishment across all major cereals and oilseed rape.
A November assessment revealed that drilling is virtually complete and only about 3% of the planned winter wheat area remains ready for planting. Thanks to favorable conditions this fall, most crops germinated and many grew quickly.
As of November 24, AHDB statistics show that 83% of winter wheat, 89% of winter barley, 87% of winter oats and 82% of winter oilseed rapeseed were rated in good or excellent condition. These ratings indicate crops with normal or better-than-normal yield potential.
This situation is in stark contrast to last fall, when prolonged wet weather delayed drilling and hampered early development. As of November 2024, 18% of the winter wheat crop was still in unplanted or unemergent condition, and only 44% was judged to be in good or excellent condition. Many crops also struggled with the very wet weather of 2023.
This season, producers have benefited from improved drilling periods and, in some cases, significant nitrogen carryover after fertilizer applications from April to June, which may have contributed to early rapid growth.
The season continued to deliver strong yields, with crop ratings now approaching levels last seen in November 2022, according to AHDB.
“Overall, the crop’s potential for harvest in 2026 looks promising and higher yields are expected to help offset the current low prices,” said Helen Plant, senior grains and oilseeds analyst at AHDB.
“However, it is important to remember that farmers have experienced two very difficult years and low profit margins remain a challenge, with lower malt and flour premiums adding further pressure.”
The survey results were compiled for AHDB by RSK ADAS Ltd and reflect the crop situation up to 24 November. The next report is expected to be submitted on March 27, 2026.
