Early Saturday morning, New York City mayoral candidate Zoran Mamdani stepped onto the stage in Harlem’s historically black neighborhood.
His message was familiar. That means he will be the best candidate to fight for the marginalized working class of the city.
“There have been many questions about whether the city will become a museum where it once was, a museum where workers can thrive,” Mamdani told the crowd.
On June 24th, Mamdani was upset and won the New York City Democratic mayoral primary over former governor Andrew Cuomo.
Just this Tuesday, the results of Round 3 were announced, showing that Mamdani warned 56% of the ranked votes and 44% of Cuomo’s.
Its dominant performance has caused ripples around the political sphere of the United States. But it also led to scrutiny about where Mamdani’s weaknesses lie.
Preliminary results suggest that Mamdani struggled in low-income areas such as Brownsville and East Flatbush.
In both of these areas, over 60% of residents are black. The neighborhood also shares a high poverty rate, with Brownsville at 32.4% and East Flatbush at 18.9 at 18.2%.
One widely cited analysis from the New York Times found that 49% of the precincts, where the low-income majority leaning towards Cuomo, compared to 38% of the mam dani, is leaning towards Kaomo.
In the precincts with a majority of black residents, the number of parent Cuomos increased to 51%.
These statistics have raised questions as to whether Mamdani’s promise to restore affordability in New York failed to resonate, or whether the numbers hide a more complicated story.
Famous opponents
Even before the major outcomes were called, there were some indications that Mamdani faced a sudden challenge between low-income and black voters.
A Marist Poll (PDF) from May found that 47% of respondents with household incomes under $50,000 are planning to vote for Cuomo as their first option.
Mamdani is the distant second out of nine possible candidates, with 11% support. Meanwhile, he came third in the vote among black voters, with 8% support from Cuomo 50%.
Experts say Cuomo has several factors in his favor. Political consultant Jerry Klunik noted that Cuomo was a well-known figure before the June primary.
Not only is Cuomo the governor two times, he is also the son of the former governor.
His decades-long career in politics included a stint in President Bill Clinton’s cabinet. Founding figures like Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina ultimately supported his campaign.
In contrast, Mamdani is renewed on the political stage. The 33-year-old has been in the New York State Legislature since 2020.
“Most people expected Cuomo to do well in a minority area,” Krnic said.
“He had a name recognition and was also supported by local elected officials in most of these areas.”
Skurnik also noted that primary elections usually attract older voters, considered the majority of Cuomo’s voting block.
But there, Skurnik points out that Mamdani was against the odds. An analysis by the New York Times suggests that voters in their 20s and 30s are significantly higher than in the 2021 mayoral primary.
It helped the overall Democratic main vote since 1989 when David Dinkins campaigned to become New York City’s first black mayor.
“The younger voters came out in far higher numbers than expected,” Skurnik said. “Even in areas where Mamdani lost, he did it at a lower margin than those he expected, paving the way for his victory.”
Courting for risk aversion
Other experts speculated that Mamdani could be perceived as a more risky option as a progressive candidate facing centralists.
John Gershman, a professor of public services at New York University, has shown that uncertainty can affect voter choice, especially for people from vulnerable communities and unstable economic situations.
“For low-income families and the black community, I don’t think who’s the best candidate for calculus, but which candidate is at risk or is it the least likely to lose?” Gershman said.
“In a way, the demons you know are better than the ones you don’t.”
However, Gershman added that Mamdani fits the broader trends within the Democrats.
He noted that low-income voters leaned right against Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election despite Democrats having stronger “poverty countermeasures elements” on their agenda.
Trump has made progress among black voters, but the majority remain Democrats.
Gershman linked this trend to name recognition and media habits. He said more low-income voters received news from legacy media sources such as television and newspapers.
Cuomo relied more on those stores for their promotion. Mamdani bought quite a few TV ads, but he also campaigned heavily on social media with more informal and conversational videos.
However, some conservative commentators have become immersed in New York Times analysis, reaching another interpretation of why certain voters perceive risk in their Mamdani campaigns.
Speaking to Fox News, Republican strategist Karl Rove cited the statistics to argue that low-income voters may fear tax burdens that involve poverty measures spending.
“The low-income voters said, ‘What do you know? We’re not so stupid as to think this is all costly,'” Loeb said, swiping through the mum dani.
“No one is rich enough to pay for all the promises he’s making.”
Complex demographic patchwork
However, many experts say that the trends in the broader voting cannot capture the complexity and overlap of the communities they represent.
Michael Lange, a primary researcher and political strategist, noted that many low-income communities in New York are Hispanic or Asian.
“There were many low-income areas where Zohran Mamdani worked, especially in Queens. [like] Elmhurst and Flushing, it’s almost exclusively Asian,” Lange said.
These areas, he added, are “the boundary of low income to the poor to the working class.”
Mamdani-sponsored activist and local historian Assad Dandia warned that it is wrong to see his campaign portraying only white or upper class voters.
Rather, Dandia argued that Mamdani’s candidacy put together a patchwork of diverse communities, from Pakistani enclaves in Brighton Beach to the Covid-Latin majority in Queens.
Even in some black and low-income regions, Dandia noted that Mamdani was at the top.
“How can you say he’s not appealing to low-income voters when he wins Harlem?” Dandia asked.
But like their politics, communities are constantly evolving. Juan Battle, a professor at City University of New York, emphasizes that every election cycle is different, and voter priorities can change.
He noted that crime was the dominant theme in the last mayoral election. It supported former police officer Eric Adams, who is now the mayor, for power.
“If this had happened four years ago when crime was a big problem, I don’t think Mamdani would have won,” Battle said. “Cuomo would have definitely won.”
There are no monoliths in election season
Mandami is set to face Adams himself in the November general election. Cuomo hasn’t yet ruled out third-party runs in the final vote.
Still, as a Democratic candidate, Mamdani has been at the forefront of the race. And his campaign could continue that coalition, including complaints about the primary lost demographics.
That includes black voters. However, to succeed, Portia Allenkiel, executive director of color change in racial justice groups, believes that Mamdani needs to understand the spectrum of the perspectives of the black community.
“Black voters are not monoliths. [election] She said.
Allen Kiel believes authenticity and innovation will be key to reaching black voters coming in November. She also warned that she relied too heavily on the same popular shows that other politicians appear.
“In the same way, you can no longer reach black voters to go to church. We aren’t all listening to breakfast clubs or Eblo in the morning,” she explained, referring to two radio shows featuring Mamdani.
As he continues to reach out to black voters before November, Mamdani has created an alliance with the civil rights icon, Pastor Al Sharpton.
At the event on Saturday, Sharpton himself reflected the New York Times’ findings on Mamdani and the Black Voting.
“The New York Times, two days after the primary, had a talk about black votes,” Sharpton told the crowd.
He noted that Mamdani could choose to appeal to other communities where his support was stronger. However, Mamdani’s “courage” gained his support.
“Other kinds of politicians would have been playing against the black community,” Sharpton said. “He decided to come to the black community.”
