Eli Lilly The company on Wednesday announced better-than-expected fourth-quarter profits and sales, as well as 2026 outlook, as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Munjaro soars.
The pharmaceutical giant expects sales to be between $80 billion and $83 billion in 2026. Analysts had expected revenue of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG.
Lilly also expects full-year adjusted earnings to be between $33.50 and $35 per share. That compares with analysts’ expectations of $33.23 per share, according to LSEG.
The guidance is in stark contrast to the outlook for rival Novo Nordisk, which is also working to lower prices in the U.S. following a landmark deal the companies struck with President Donald Trump to reduce the cost of drugs to treat obesity and diabetes. Unlike Lilly, Novo on Tuesday warned that sales and profits could fall by as much as 13% this year due to falling prices in the United States and expiring exclusivity of its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs in China, Brazil and Canada.
Meanwhile, the midpoint of Lilly’s earnings outlook calls for sales to rise 25% this year.
The strong outlook comes just days after Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC in an exclusive interview that he expects the market for these drugs to grow this year due to the government’s upcoming Medicare coverage of obesity treatments, which will result in a “huge multiplier in the target audience” for patients.
In Wednesday’s earnings call, Lilly cited several factors that will benefit it this year, including Medicare coverage, continued global demand for Munjaro and Zepbound, and the expected launch of its obesity drug GLP-1 pill in the second quarter, pending U.S. approval.
But Lilly said global price declines will hit in the low to mid-teens due to factors such as the deal with President Trump, Zepbound’s new direct-to-consumer rates and Medicaid price reductions for some older products.
Lilly expects Novo to explode with new U.S. launches of its obesity drug WeGovy and is working to maintain its lead in the fast-growing market for these drugs, called GLP-1. Ahead of its rollout in January, Lilly’s share of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market increased to 60.5% in the fourth quarter, up 2.6% from the previous quarter, according to the presentation. Novo’s market share in the fourth quarter was 39.1%.
Mounjaro had revenue of $7.41 billion in the quarter, an increase of 110% year-over-year. Munjaro’s U.S. sales increased 57% to $4.1 billion as demand increased but prices realized were lower. Those numbers were higher than analysts had expected for the quarter, according to Street Accounts.
Zepbound, which entered the market about three years ago, posted $4.2 billion in revenue in the U.S. in the fourth quarter. This was a 122% year-on-year increase as realized prices fell while demand for the drug also increased. Analysts had expected Zepbound’s U.S. sales to be $3.91 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Below is a comparison of Eli Lilly’s fourth-quarter report to Wall Street expectations, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG.
Earnings per share: $7.54 adjusted vs. $6.67 expected Revenue: $19.29 billion vs. $17.96 billion expected
Eli Lilly shares rose more than 7% in premarket trading.
The company’s fourth quarter sales were $19.29 billion, an increase of 43% year over year.
US revenue increased to $12.9 billion. Eli Lilly said the increase was primarily due to a 50% increase in sales volume of its products for Mounjaro and Zepbound, including the number of prescriptions and units sold. The company said the impact was partially offset by lower realized prices for these medicines.
The pharmaceutical giant posted net income of $6.64 billion, or $7.39 per share, in the fourth quarter. This compares to net income of $4.41 billion, or $4.88 per share, in the same period last year.
Excluding one-time items related to the value of intangible assets and other adjustments, Eli Lilly’s fourth-quarter earnings were $7.54 per share.
Novo and Lilly’s deal with President Trump is expected to ultimately increase the number of prescriptions filled, but ultimately will have a negative impact on total sales.
Under the agreement, Lilly and Novo agreed to reduce the prices of these treatments for Medicare and Medicaid recipients in 2026 and make them available directly to consumers at a discount on TrumpRx, the Trump administration’s yet-to-be-launched direct-to-consumer platform.
In return, both companies will be exempt from customs duties for three years.
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Lilly’s Ricks acknowledged that under the drug pricing agreement, there would be a “phased reduction in prices” early this year. But he said the company’s drug volume growth “will accelerate from the second half of this year.”
