Annual analysis explains changes in U.S. load forecasts, growing long-term oil supply potential in Venezuela, and selective investments across the energy transition.
AUSTIN, Texas (January 13, 2026) — Enverus, a leading energy SaaS and analytics platform, releases its 2026 World Energy Outlook. This is a comprehensive overview of the year, with a focus on hydrocarbon prices, power system realities, upstream efficiency, selective low-carbon investments, and geopolitical risks such as the changing situation in Venezuela and Iran, which continue to impact global oil supply sentiment.
Embers’ latest outlook puts Brent crude oil on average at about $55 per barrel in 2026, Henry Hub natural gas on average at about $3.80 per MMBtu this winter and $3.60 per MMBtu next summer, permian basin. We expect gas supplies to increase by about 1.1 Bcf/d by the end of the year and European TTF natural gas to remain near $10-12 per MMBtu as electricity markets focus on stable capacity and grid reliability.
“2026 will be a year of rebalancing as capital concentrates on specific winners such as gas-fired generation and landfill RNG, grid operators enhance AI-driven load forecasting and data centers move towards behind-the-meter generation,” said Ian Nieboer, managing director of Enverus Intelligence® Research.
Dane Gregoris, Managing Director of Enverus Intelligence® Research, added: “Our research shows that oil prices will reset to lower levels in 2026, with no indication of long-term resource scarcity. Upstream operators will continue to pursue efficiency gains while maintaining capital selectivity.”
Important points:
Oil prices will reset before recovering. The average Brent price in 2026 is expected to be around $55 per barrel after a weak first half and weak stocks in the second half as markets focus on geopolitical headlines from Venezuela, Iran and Russia. Gas benchmarks remain positive. While Henry Hub averages around $3.80/MMBtu in the winter and $3.60/MMBtu next summer, TTF is hovering around $10-12/MMBtu amid stable global LNG demand and the need to balance renewable energy. Associated gases rise with new takeaways. Permian gas supplies are expected to increase by about 1.1 Bcf per day by the end of 2026 as pipeline expansions to Gulf markets continue. The electricity market has absorbed last year’s policy changes. Bankruptcies and divestitures of renewable energy portfolios increase, M&A in gas-fired power generation remains active (above $1 million/MW), and BESS is expected to reach saturation in some markets (ERCOT). Independent system operators (ISOs) will tighten AI-driven load assumptions, leading to lower ISO load forecasts. Meanwhile, power company reforms are forcing more data centers to seek behind-the-meter power generation. Capital to maintain selectivity across transition technologies. Landfill renewable natural gas (RNG) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) are singled out as winners on an after-tax reporting basis, while hydrogen and fertilizer-based renewable natural gas (RNG) face headwinds from weaker incentives and market signals.
Enverus analytics leverages a variety of products, including Enverus PRISM®, Enverus FOUNDATIONS® – Carbon Innovation, Short-Term Grid Analytics and Forecasting Solutions, Oil and Gas Production Forecasting Solutions (Predictive Analytics), Enverus CORE®, and Enverus AI.
Enverus has created the 2026 World Energy Outlook public ebook, written by more than 120 experts and proprietary datasets, with insights across natural gas, power, upstream, and M&A for finance, operations, renewable energy, and oilfield services professionals.
Download the 2026 Energy Outlook Report
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