The UK’s fresh food supply is under threat, with new reports warning that nearly half of imported fruits and vegetables could face serious climate-related risks by the middle of the century.
The report, published by Aethr Associates in partnership with the Sustainability Consultancy, by the Fresh Agricultural Products Consortium, highlights the UK’s dependence on international food imports.
In 2024, the UK imported 47% of its vegetables and 84% of its fruits, much of it comes from climate-exposed regions.
On the record-breaking global heat of 2023 and the hottest day recorded on July 22, 2024, the report warns that extreme weather is no longer a distant threat.
Heat waves, droughts and floods are expected to attack more frequently in the very area where the UK relies on fresh produce.
The analysis reveals that 64% of UK fruit and vegetable imports come from just 10 countries, including Spain, where average temperatures are projected to rise by 16% by 2050.
Spain is expected to increase the number of “hot days” (average 24 hours temperatures above 35°C) by nine to more than 20 times each year. In Peru, that number is set to rise from 1 to 11. This is a 10-fold increase.
Furthermore, concerns are that by 2050, 72% of agricultural products in these top 10 countries will grow under conditions of extreme water stress, poses a significant risk of crop failure, price spikes and supply chain destruction.
“As we have seen in recent years, the increasing dependence on fresh food supplies from countries with competing demand with limited water supplies leads to more empty shelves and food prices inflation, as we have seen in recent years,” says Richard Bond, co-founder of AETHR Associates.
“Climate change and forecasts for the next 25 years are extremely important and importers need to ensure that existing crop production methods can withstand the 2050 climate.”
Over the past five years, the UK has increased fruit and vegetable imports by 43% from countries facing severe water shortages, a trend driven by changes in diet and increased demand for agricultural products such as avocados, mangoes and pineapples. Currently, about £10 billion is spent every year on importing fresh produce.
The report urges UK importers to assess exposure to climate risks and work with growers and suppliers to implement adaptation strategies.
These include improving water storage systems, developing climate-sensitive crop varieties, strengthening flood protection, and investment in infrastructure that can handle rising temperatures.
“Solutions may include strengthening water storage, mitigating the effects of extreme temperatures, strengthening flood protection, and planting climate-sensitive crop varieties.
“Ultimately, success depends on your ability to adapt through advanced investments in infrastructure and innovation,” Bonn says.
Kelly Shields, technical director at The Fresh Produce Consortium, reiterated the call for urgent action.
“This report is the first time that data has been compiled to highlight challenges and highlights critical solutions.”
The authors ask both businesses and policymakers to embed climate risks in strategic plans to protect the country’s food security.
