Exxon, Chevron’s fourth-quarter profits may be overshadowed by geopolitical intrigue Chevron in the spotlight, the only U.S. oil giant with operations in Venezuela Exxon signals low oil prices could reduce upstream profits by $1.2 billion
(Reuters) – Exxon Mobiland Chevron executives may face more questions about investment opportunities in Venezuela than their actual quarterly profits when they speak on a call with analysts on Friday.
The United States’ detention and removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month opened the door for major oil companies to gain access to the country’s vast crude oil reserves, albeit with difficulty, after President Donald Trump announced a vision for $100 billion in new U.S. investments to increase and control Venezuelan oil production.
This was a dramatic geopolitical shift following the rekindling of US-China trade tensions and Russia-Ukraine peace talks in the fourth quarter of 2025, leading to fluctuations in oil prices. Investors are also keeping an eye on widespread anti-government protests in Iran and a possible U.S. response in recent days.
Exxon and Chevron will report fourth-quarter and full-year profits on Friday, while European oil giants Shell, Total Energy and BP are scheduled to report next month.
Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at advisory firm Hightower Advisors, which is a major shareholder in both Chevron and Exxon, said that while Chevron is currently the only U.S. oil major with operations in the country, attention will be focused on the Venezuelan issue, but the topic will probably be brought up by all oil companies.
Venezuelan oil production accounts for 1% to 2% of Chevron’s operating cash flow, and higher production could add another 1% to 2% in the coming years, estimated Jason Gabelman, managing director of energy equity research at TD Cowen.
Bank of America Global Research analyst Jean-Ann Salisbury said in a research note that there are too many questions to determine the long-term value of Venezuela to Chevron’s business.
“We continue to view Chevron as having a significant position in the country with existing personnel, relationships and payment mechanisms…but much more visibility is needed to assess value,” she wrote.
Analysts said the company was unlikely to reveal key details about potential plans for Venezuela, given the oil project’s long timeline.
Exxon likely to ask questions regarding Guyana
A big question for Exxon is whether the company will be able to access new parts of the Stabroek field in neighboring Guyana, where 30% of the rich oil fields remain undeveloped due to territorial disputes between Guyana and Venezuela, BofA’s Salisbury said in a separate note on Monday.
Exxon leads the oil consortium that operates Stabroek and holds a 45% interest, while Chevron owns 30%.
At a White House summit earlier this month, Exxon CEO Darren Woods described Venezuela as “uninvestable” and said the company needed investment protection after having its assets confiscated twice in the past.
Elsewhere, Kazakhstan’s largest Tengiz oil field suffered a production outage this month, the latest setback after the field’s main export route came under attack by Ukrainian navy drones. The field is a key asset for Chevron, which heads the joint venture that operates Tengiz, and Exxon also has a stake.
Profits may be squeezed due to falling crude oil prices
Exxon previously indicated that lower oil prices could reduce upstream profits by up to $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter compared with the previous three months. Wall Street expects the largest U.S. oil producer to report adjusted earnings of $1.68 per share, up 1 cent from a year ago, according to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG.
Analysts expect Chevron’s adjusted earnings per share to be $1.46, down 29% from a year ago.
Brent crude oil prices averaged $63.08 per barrel in the October-December period, down 7.5% from the previous three months, as concerns persist about oversupply in the oil market.
U.S. natural gas prices rose 32% in the fourth quarter to average $4.04 per million British thermal units, driven by colder weather and export demand for liquefied natural gas.
As usual, investors will continue to focus on changes in the company’s outlook for the rest of the year, in addition to shareholder returns, Hightower Advisors’ Link said.
“While we do not expect any changes to our dividend or share buyback plans for 2026, it will be important to hear their guidance on these areas,” he said.
Reporting by Sheila Dunn in Houston. Editing: Nia Williams
