(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to rise from 103.5 mega barrels per day in 2024 to 113 million barrels per day in 2040, driven by rising energy demand and continued challenges in low-carbon technology and infrastructure, the Wall Street bank said on Thursday.
“We expect average annual demand to grow steadily to 0.9 million barrels per day from 2025 to 2030, but slow to 0.1 million barrels per day by 2040,” the company said in a note.
Key factors Goldman cited for the above-consensus outlook include technology bottlenecks limiting jet fuel and petrochemical alternatives, and energy demand growth continuing to outpace oil emissions even after road fuels peak in 2030. It also pointed out that artificial intelligence will indirectly increase gross domestic product growth by 3 megabytes per day by 2040.
But Goldman also cited downside risks from rapid advances in low-carbon technology and a potential economic recession. Oil prices were mostly stable on Thursday, a day after falling about 4% as investors weighed impending sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil and concerns about a global supply glut.
Reporting by Sara Qureshi in Bangalore. Editing: Richard Chan
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