Gulf Arab states are watching nervously as neighboring Iran is embroiled in nationwide protests. US President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Tehran, and many Gulf states fear the move will plunge the region into chaos.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly lobbying the US government behind the scenes to refrain from attacking Iran, while Qatar and Oman are focusing on diplomatic cooperation between Iranian and US officials. Observers said the three countries shifted into high-speed diplomacy to ease tensions after reports on Wednesday that communications between the United States and Iran had broken down, raising concerns that an attack was imminent.
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“They were all concerned because it was all about traditional channels.” [between the US and Iran] It was underutilized, at least by the U.S. side,” said Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf analyst and non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
“G.C.C. [Gulf Cooperation Council] Officials did not know what the U.S. intentions were,” said Muhanad Sellom, assistant professor of critical security studies at the Doha Graduate Institute.
Regional impact
Tensions escalated after President Trump repeatedly threatened military action over the bloodshed in Iran. Iranian authorities say more than 100 security force personnel have been killed in clashes with demonstrators, but opposition activists say the actual toll includes more than 1,000 demonstrators since demonstrations broke out in late December. Al Jazeera cannot independently verify these figures.
President Trump called on the Iranians to take over state institutions and promised that “help is on the way.” It was not clear what kind of attack he was considering, but his comments prepared the region for an escalation.
Gulf Arab states fear a military attack on Iran could disrupt oil prices, shatter its reputation as a safe haven for business and provoke Iranian retaliation.
It wouldn’t be the first time. In 2019, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities, temporarily reducing Saudi oil production. Last June, after the United States attacked Iran’s main nuclear facilities, Iran attacked Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, where American troops are stationed.
Iran gave ample warning that it would carry out the attack, which ended a 12-day war between Israel and Iran, but set a precedent. And although the conflict has weakened Iran’s military power, the Islamic Republic still has weapons that undermine U.S. interests in the region.
“Iran has ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles and militias around it, so if they are given a reason to attack, they will attack,” Sellloom said.
On Wednesday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran had warned regional countries from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to Turkiye that US military bases in those countries would be attacked if the US targeted Iran. Subsequently, some personnel were reduced from Al Udeid Air Base.
President Trump told reporters at the White House late Wednesday that he had received information that “the killings in Iran are stopping, they are stopping… and there are no plans for executions.” Some interpreted this as an exit to de-escalation, but the US president did not rule out military action.
unintended consequences
Although each member of the Gulf Cooperation Council has a different history with Iran, they are all concerned about what happens next and who will fill the void if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is ousted or the entire system suddenly collapses, experts say.
The collapse of Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion and the ensuing chaos, including a deadly civil war, the strengthening of al-Qaeda, and the eventual rise of ISIL (ISIS), is an experience that Gulf Arab states would not want to see repeated in a country with a population of more than 90 million, an arsenal of weapons at its disposal, and a significantly weakened but still existing regional alliance network.
“They may want the Iranian leadership to be weakened, but they are all more concerned about a scenario of chaos and uncertainty and the possibility of more radical elements seizing power in Iran,” Khalaf said.
Qatar, Kuwait and Oman have found a way to coexist with their northern Gulf neighbors, and Doha shares the world’s largest natural gas reserves with Tehran.
Dubai, UAE, is also an important port for trade with Iran, and the two countries enjoy strong economic ties. Therefore, the UAE will suffer greatly from unrest in Iran and attacks on Iranian soil. Still, UAE officials have remained silent over the past week, distancing themselves from other GCC countries by aligning with Israel and taking different positions on Sudan and Yemen.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been archenemies, but in recent years this rivalry has transformed into a pragmatic relationship based on keeping channels of communication open and mutually preventing escalation.
Riyadh is particularly wary of regional instability as Saudi Arabia embarks on a series of ambitious economic reforms aimed at diversifying its oil dependence and strengthening its tourism sector, a goal that requires stability at home and in the wider region.
“Saudi [Arabia] “I’m not at all happy with regime change anywhere – because it’s radical and extreme, the outcome is uncertain and there are risks,” Khalaf added.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Thursday: “Our goal is to achieve stability and calm and direct resources to build a better future for our people.”
Still, Saudi political analyst Khalid Batarfi said Riyadh would welcome changes in Iran, especially if they are gradual and result in a leadership willing to reduce its nuclear and missile programs and less opposed to the United States.
“But sudden changes like a change of government with the risk of state collapse are not good for anyone,” Butterfi said. “The whole area is on fire, but there is no need to add new fires.”
