Heavy electric trucks could strain New York City roads and bridges, study warns

New York City’s roads and bridges already suffer millions of dollars in damage each year from heavy trucks, and a new study warns that electrifying freight transportation could add to that burden. As electric trucks replace diesel models, heavier batteries could increase cities’ annual repair costs by up to nearly 12% by 2050.

The study, led by C2SMART researchers at NYU Tandon School of Technology in collaboration with Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) and published in the journal Transport Policy, found that large trucks already cause about $4.16 million in damage each year, while permitting generates only $1.28 million in revenue. Electric trucks typically weigh 2,000 to 3,000 pounds more than diesel models, and can weigh as much as 8,000 to 9,000 pounds over longer distances, and the economic disparity is expected to widen.

“As electric vehicle penetration increases, our cities’ infrastructure will face new and changing demands to support this transition,” said Professor Khan Ozbey, senior author of the paper and director of the C2SMART Center for Transportation Research at NYU Tandon. “Our framework shows that cities need to adapt their plans and toll structures to ensure they can accommodate the costs of keeping bridges and roadways safe as a result of broader adoption of electric trucks.”

Researchers used New York City’s hyperdimensional vehicle permit dataset to model how electric truck adoption will unfold by 2050. They found that switching to electric trucks could increase damage costs by 2.23% to 4.45% by 2030 and 9.19% to 11.71% by 2050. More extreme scenarios involving unusually heavy batteries yield higher numbers, but the authors say these results are technically unlikely. Improve.

The impact will not be uniform across the city. Manhattan faces the biggest increase, with parts of Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx also at risk due to heavy truck traffic and aging buildings. Staten Island and many areas outside of it are shown to be less affected. Bridges are particularly sensitive to increases in gross vehicle weight and therefore bear approximately 65% ​​of the additional costs. Pavements are greatly affected by axial loads and gradually wear out.

“We found that conventional heavy-duty trucks in New York City already cause more than $4 million in damage per year,” said study lead author Zern Liu, a New York University Tandon Ph.D. Candidate in the recently established Urban Systems Ph.D. in the Department of Civil and Urban Engineering. This program was advised by Professor Osbey. “With the predicted introduction of electric trucks, these costs could further increase by nearly 12%. This gap highlights the urgent need for new strategies to keep our infrastructure sustainable.”

To manage risk, researchers created a susceptibility index that identifies road segments and bridges that are most vulnerable to heavier vehicles. They recommend replacing flat permit fees with flexible weight-based fees that reflect real costs while recognizing environmental benefits. It also calls for expanded weight monitoring, especially in Manhattan’s high-risk corridors, and for predicting electric trucks to be factored into city maintenance and capital planning to avoid costly emergency repairs.

Although this study focuses on New York City, similar pressures are occurring elsewhere. The European Union allows zero-emissions trucks to exceed the weight limit by nearly 9,000 pounds, while U.S. regulations allow them to exceed the weight limit by an additional 2,000 pounds. The framework developed by NYU Tandon and the RIT team offers cities a way to balance climate goals with the realities of infrastructure wear and tear.

Despite the additional costs, the authors emphasize that the overall situation for electric trucks in New York remains strong. Their scenario suggests that widespread electrification could reduce approximately 2,032 tons of carbon dioxide per year and improve air quality and public health.

“The proposed methodological framework can provide policymakers with practical insights to ensure the longevity and safety of infrastructure as electric truck adoption increases,” Osbay said.

In addition to senior author Ozbay and first author Liu, other authors of the paper are Jingqin Gao, associate director of research at C2SMART; Dr. Tu Lan, an urban systems doctoral student, graduated from the program under the advice of Professor Ozbey. and Zilin Bian, who recently received his Ph.D. from New York University Tandon. He graduated from the Department of Civil and Urban Engineering and is currently an assistant professor at RIT.