Wholesale removal of sheep from highland estates to offset carbon is causing a crisis that far exceeds the fall of lamb numbers, warning the Scottish sheep sector.
A National Sheep Association (NSA) study shows that over 50,000 breeding ewes have disappeared over the past decade, indicating a dramatic change in highland agriculture.
An NSA survey of 51 Highland Estates found that many people were completely stopped and replaced sheep with regeneration projects or commercial forestry.
NSA Scotland Region Chairman Peter Miles said the figure clearly shows that financial incentives have more weight.
He added: “We cannot blame real estate for diversifying our income and making ourselves the future. That’s what we have to ask about is government policies, both nationally and internationally.”
Though 12 of the properties surveyed held small flocks, some of which fell from 1,000 to just 200 ewes, the NSA believes these reduced flocks still play a key role.
“Small herds can provide ecosystem services and maintain agricultural skills while coexisting with mosaics of highland habitats,” Miles explained. “It’s important to balance.
“It maintains small flocks that help sequester carbon, supports birds on the ground, produces maternal genetics, produces nutritious foods, and sustainable fiber is far better than having no livestock at all.”
Scotland’s national breeding herds reduced to 2.45 million last year. “In 1900 there were about 3 million breeding ewes and one million Scots could feed them,” Miles pointed out.
“As an industry, we have to ask how long this decline will last and when our efforts to reduce herd numbers will cease.”
Beyond the production of lost sheep and meat, the NSA warns of wider consequences, including erosion of rural skills such as scattering, work and training, and deep knowledge of the landscape.
The decline in livestock numbers threatens throughput-dependent companies, such as auction marts, slaughterhouses and animal health and nutrition services.
The NSA warns that uncontrolled hill ground is at risk of overgrown danger.
The accumulation of arid vegetation also poses a risk for wildlife, threatening both wildlife and the community.
Rising mites’ populations is another concern and is associated with the lack of routine external parasite control, usually occurring in flocks of sheep.
The NSA is seeking more accurate carbon accounting, advocating for the use of Global Warming Possibility (GWP) metrics that distinguish methane from long-life fossil fuel emissions.
The body argues that this better reflects the sustainable role of antimind livestock in land management.
Eleanor Kay, senior policy advisor to agriculture for Scotland & Estates, reflected the demands from the Scottish government to make it clearer.
“Expectations for Scottish land have changed dramatically over the past decade, with increasing demand for food production, natural recovery and carbon sequestration, and the need to support rural jobs and communities,” she said.
“We are a strong supporter of the livestock sector, but these findings underscore the urgent need for clear, long-term government support.
“A lot of agricultural businesses are now too risky to invest or survive.”
The NSA also expressed growing concern over a decline in opportunities for young people entering farming.
As farms disappear, there is also the possibility of newcomers despite the low capital requirements of high altitude sheep farming and the potential for stable cash flow for start-ups.
