Hit series continue to slump, putting pressure on box office revenue

Movie fans will be seeing a lot of familiar franchises on the big screen this year. It may not be enough to save box office money.

New entrants from popular film franchises will be dominating film roles over the next 12 months. The 2026 schedule includes releases for Star Wars, Marvel, DC Comics, Toy Story, Super Mario Bros., The Hunger Games, Scream, Scary Movie, Minions, Dune, and Jumanji.

Intellectual properties like these established series have been an important part of Hollywood for years, but they will become even more important in 2026 as the theatrical industry aims to surpass $10 billion in domestic box office revenue for the first time since the pandemic.

But some big-name titles aren’t drawing the audiences they used to, and industry insiders worry that this year’s $10 billion benchmark may be out of reach for a post-pandemic industry reeling from production shutdowns, major studio consolidation and consumer shifts to streaming.

“Reliance on franchises has gotten a little harder in recent years,” said Alicia Reese, senior vice president of equity research at Wedbush. “Yes, there’s some certainty…but it’s not a home run, and it never will be. People are more selective than they used to be. They know what’s coming. Word of mouth means more than ever.”

Since 2010, the top 10 highest-grossing films in the country have been primarily franchise films, according to ComScore data. During that time, eight to 10 of the films released each year were sequels, prequels, or remakes. The only outlier was 2020, when seven of the top 10 films were franchise-based films due to the number of films postponed during the coronavirus shutdown.

And of course, many of the original titles in the top 10 have been adapted into series over the past 20 years. Look at “Avatar,” “Frozen,” “Zootopia,” “Inside Head,” “Pet Secrets,” and “Ted.”

“Studios clearly feel that it’s worth the gamble for audiences to be able to go to the movies with confidence, knowing in a sense that they already know what they’re going to get before they even get into the auditorium,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.

Box office revenues have become more dependent on the success of these franchise films as studios lean into the safety of a pre-built audience.

From 2010 to 2019, before the pandemic, the top 10 films accounted for an average of 30% of all annual domestic box office receipts. Topping this group was the 2019 calendar, with these films accounting for nearly 40% of the year’s box office revenue. All 10 films that year leveraged IP, and nine of them grossed more than $1 billion worldwide.

Post-pandemic, the average share of the top 10 films in the annual domestic box office total is 44%.

“I remember having this conversation in the late ’90s,” said Eric Handler, managing director and senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners. “For the past few decades, box office revenue has been franchise-driven, and that’s exactly the case. Why? Because when the content is familiar, people are more likely to come because they have an affinity for a particular franchise and it’s already known.”

Now, Hollywood is facing the harsh reality of what happens when a franchise goes bust.

Two of the most anticipated movies to hit theaters last year — Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Below expectations.

The first Wicked movie, released in 2024, grossed $475 million at the domestic box office and just over $750 million worldwide during its theatrical run. A year later, the second part of the two-part series has raised just under $350 million from the United States and Canada, and about $525 million worldwide.

Box office analysts attribute the low ticket sales to a drop in quality between the first and second installments. “Wicked” received an 88% “Fresh” rating on review aggregation site Rotten Tomatoes, while “Wicked: For Good” received a 66% rating.

Avatar: Fire and Ashes had an even bigger challenge. Released in 2009, James Cameron’s blockbuster hit “Avatar” grossed $785.2 million domestically and $2.1 billion overseas. With ticket sales of $2.9 billion, it remains the highest-grossing film of all time.

More than a decade later, Avatar: The Way of Water was released in theaters and grossed $688.8 million domestically and $1.6 billion internationally, for a total box office of $2.3 billion.

However, when Fire and Ashes was released in theaters in December, consumer demand was not strong enough, and the allure of Cameron’s groundbreaking cinematography had diminished. Fire and Ash is still playing in theaters, but as of Sunday it had grossed just $378.5 million domestically, but more than $1 billion internationally.

Wedbush’s Reese said part of the problem could be in trying to extract too much from one franchise.

Take Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe, for example. The film series has been a box office favorite for nearly two decades, but has struggled to produce sequels of consistent quality in the wake of 2019’s climax, Avengers: Endgame. At the same time, 12 new TV series flooded the streaming market.

“If you try to stretch it too thin or don’t pay the same level of attention to detail, it won’t work,” Reese says.

There are risks in trying to expand a niche interest into global success, she says. Will the filmmakers stay close to the original IP and faithfully recreate its foundations, or will they shoot for a wider audience and greater attention?

Mr. Reese pointed out: Warner Brothers” The new Dune series, directed by Denis Villeneuve and starring Timothee Chalamet, is a perfect example of a series that has managed to find success both by reaching new audiences and by winning over fans who already loved the original.

“If it’s a good movie, it’s going to serve a core audience, and it might be able to bring in newcomers and have broad appeal,” Reese said. “But if you’re trying to appeal broadly and you’re not serving your core fans, they’re going to turn on you. That creates a big problem, because if they don’t like the movie, other people are going to find out about it, and they’re not going to go either, right?”

Since the movie industry was nearly wiped out by the coronavirus in early 2020, the number of movies produced for theatrical release has decreased.

As studios produce fewer movies, they’ve become more reliant on what they perceive to be the safe option: tried and true IP.

In 2024, 94 movies will be released in more than 2,000 locations, down 20% from 2019’s 120 wide releases. This decline was also reflected in box office revenue, which was down about 23% from 2019’s total of $11.4 billion.

There were 112 movies released wide in 2025, down about 6.6% from 2019 levels, but box office revenue was still more than 20% behind.

Hollywood analysts point to several factors that explain why domestic box office revenues continue to slump.

There is a lack of theatrical content, especially films in the mid-budget range ($15 million to $90 million). Most of these movies, which tend to be dramas, comedies, romantic comedies, and thrillers, have migrated to streaming because it’s cheaper to produce and helps add new content to digital libraries.

At the same time, the home entertainment space has advanced, with consumers becoming more picky about what they watch and home technology making it easier to stay on the couch.

Because of this, studios and theater owners have begun to “eventize” movie releases, promoting them as must-see movies in premium large-format theaters such as IMAX, Dolby Cinema, Screen X, and 4DX. Sale of special products such as popcorn buckets and drink sippers, as well as limited-time food items. The company will also host events related to the release of the film, such as making friendship bracelets in conjunction with the release of Taylor Swift’s concert film.

Often the easiest films to promote in this way are those based on known series.

Last year, when Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale was released in theaters, the Alamo Drafthouse hosted a costume screening, encouraging moviegoers to arrive in period-appropriate attire. The event included a costume contest and themed drinks and food. The theater chain has hosted similar events for screenings of James Bond and Star Wars films, and plans to host a similar event for the upcoming Wuthering Heights film adaptation.

And these series aren’t just shown in movie theaters. Many major movie studios also have their own consumer products and experiences divisions, which not only rely on theatrical content to sell their products, but can also promote theme park designs, live events, and even cruise ships.

Fans of the series crave products that celebrate and showcase their favorite characters and movie moments. This comes in many forms, from apparel, bedding, kitchenware, and bumper stickers to seasonal products such as collectibles, luxury watches, electronics, and decorative items.

Disney has built its theme park lands, rides, and cruise ship elements based on Pixar films such as Star Wars, Marvel, The Muppets, Cars, The Incredibles, Toy Story, and Monsters, Inc., as well as Disney animation properties such as Frozen, Zootopia, Moana, The Lion King, and The Little Mermaid.

comcast’s Universal also graces its properties with its own theme parks such as “Jurassic Park,” “Minions,” “The Secret Life of Pets,” “Dark Universe,” and “How to Train Your Dragon,” alongside licensed franchises such as “The Wizarding World of Harry Potter” and Nintendo.

And a well-loved and well-maintained series has staying power. Although the Star Wars series hasn’t had a new theatrical release since 2019, it remains one of the top film franchises in the cultural zeitgeist, according to Fandom, the world’s largest platform for entertainment fans.

Disclosure: CNBC and Rotten Tomatoes are divisions of Versant Media.