The average price of U.S. crude oil is expected to be $59.00 per barrel, lower than last month’s forecast of $60.23.
“The oil market in 2026 is expected to experience a massive and unprecedented global oversupply,” said Zein Vawda, an analyst at OANDA Market Pulse.
However, “continued political risk would maintain a significant risk premium, essentially preventing prices from falling as much as high supply would suggest.”
Analysts largely expect the oil market to be in surplus in 2026, with estimates ranging from 0.19 to 3.0 million barrels per day, compared to 0.19 to 3.0 million barrels per day in the previous survey.
International Energy Agency forecasts suggest a market surplus of 4.09 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC’s latest monthly report suggests a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day if the broader group continues to supply crude at October rates, according to Reuters calculations based on the report.
OPEC+ has raised its production target by about 2.9 million barrels per day since April, but plans to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil over the same period is expected to be $61.23, the survey showed.
Poll participants widely believe OPEC+ will avoid aggressive production increases in 2026, given persistent concerns about oversupply.
Meanwhile, Kim Fastier, head of European oil and gas research at HSBC, said: “We remain very skeptical that the group will reverse the unwind and cut production again. We only expect the group to consider cutting production if Brent prices remain below $55 per barrel for an extended period.”
Meanwhile, global oil demand is expected to increase by 0.5 to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, according to a poll.
Analysts expect U.S. shale production to decline in 2026, which, combined with geopolitical risks, “will put the price floor at about $60 a barrel,” said Matthew Sherwood, chief commodity analyst at EIU.
US sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, may cause temporary disruptions to supply but are unlikely to have a lasting impact on the market, analysts said, with Russian barrels expected to re-enter the market through shadow fleets and intermediaries.
Analysts said peace talks could eventually return more barrels to the market, increasing supply pressure.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Ross Russell)
