Japan’s plan to deploy missiles on Japan’s westernmost island near Taiwan within five years will further escalate tensions with China, analysts say.
Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said a surface-to-air system designed to intercept aircraft and ballistic missiles will be deployed by March 2031 on Yonaguni Island, about 110 kilometers (68 miles) east of Taiwan, which China claims as sovereign territory.
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Prime Minister Koizumi told reporters on Tuesday, “Depending on the progress of facility construction, we are planning for 2030,” giving the clearest schedule yet.
Analysts say the move suggests a deliberate hardening of Japan’s stance.
Einar Tangen, senior geopolitics researcher at the Center for International Governance and Innovation (CIGI), said Japan’s decision represented a “calculated escalation that will increase regional tensions.”
“These acts are not happening in a vacuum,” Tangen told Al Jazeera. “[The] The action is timed to strengthen Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hand ahead of her scheduled visit to Washington on March 19, 2026. ”
Why is Yonaguni Island important?
Yonaguni Island is located at the southwestern tip of Japan’s territory, close enough to Taiwan that the coastline is visible on a clear day.
The island forms part of the Ryukyu archipelago, a group of more than 55 islands that stretch towards the main island of Japan. In recent years, Tokyo has expanded its military infrastructure across the archipelago, installing radar systems, ammunition depots and missile batteries.
Japan first announced plans to strengthen Yonaguni’s defenses in 2022, but this is the first time authorities have committed to a specific deployment deadline.
Where does Taiwan fit into this?
Relations between Japan and China have remained tense since Takaichi publicly raised the possibility of military involvement in the Taiwan crisis in a parliamentary statement last November.
Her comments marked a notable break from Japan’s longstanding ambivalence toward Taiwan. They also arrived just after the 80th anniversary of the end of Japan’s colonial rule on Taiwan, adding historical considerations for the Chinese government.
The Chinese government, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, condemned the remarks as provocative.
In response, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “Japan should fully repent for its war crimes, immediately stop making false and provocative statements and moves that interfere in China’s internal affairs, and stop playing with fire on the Taiwan issue.”
China then banned travel to Japan. Chinese tourists contribute approximately $11 billion to Japan’s economy annually.
The Chinese government has also increased military and economic pressure, sending naval vessels near Japan’s territorial waters, tightening export controls on rare earths, and curtailing cultural exchanges, including the removal of giant pandas from Tokyo’s Ueno Zoo, a symbol of friendship between the two countries. China has a monopoly on the production of rare earths, which are used to make electric cars, phones and other high-tech devices.
What’s different now?
Some analysts see the missile deployment as part of a longer trajectory.
“This is a continuation of a process that has been going on at least since. [late Japanese Prime Minister] “Shinzo Abe reinterpreted the right of collective self-defense in 2014,” said Arnaud Bertrand, a geopolitical analyst specializing in China.
The Abe administration caused controversy by reinterpreting Japan’s pacifist constitution, granting a limited right to collective self-defense, and expanding the role of the Self-Defense Forces.
“Each step was presented as modest and defensive: coastal surveillance on Yonaguni Island in 2016, missiles on Ishigaki Island in 2023, electronic warfare units, and now this measure,” Beltran said.
However, Takaichi argued that he went further by explicitly linking Japan’s military preparations to the possibility of conflict with Taiwan.
“That’s what makes this moment so important. Given that Taiwan is a sovereign territory of China that was once colonized by Japan, a political declaration by Japan that it considers itself party to a potential Taiwan conflict is highly provocative from a Chinese perspective and from the perspective of international law.”
Japan’s defense priorities also changed. The Japanese government, once focused on the Russian threat in the north, is now focused on countering Chinese military activity in the East China Sea.
Why is Japan doing this now?
The Chinese government has yet to formally respond to Prime Minister Koizumi’s latest statement. When the minister visited Yonaguni Island in November, Chinese officials accused Japan of trying to “create regional tensions and provoke a military conflict.”
Shortly after, Chinese drones approached the area and Japan scrambled fighter jets.
“In terms of timing, Japan is making this announcement now because it recognizes that the window for a low-impact military buildup is closing. China’s capabilities are growing rapidly, and there is certainly a sense in Tokyo that if they don’t establish these forward positions now, they might not be able to do it later,” Bertrand said.
The United States has also called on its allies to increase defense spending and assume more responsibility for regional security, especially under President Donald Trump’s administration.
Domestically, Takaichi strengthened his position after his party secured an overwhelming majority in February’s parliamentary elections.
“Missile deployment and a hardline stance toward China will resonate with China’s right-wing base and strengthen its offensive defense posture, while pushing China away from its postwar pacifist constitution and principles,” Tangen said.
“From China’s perspective, the sequence of events is clear: Japan, under a newly emboldened Prime Minister Takaichi, is aggressively militarizing and interfering in Taiwan affairs to curry favor with the United States,” he added.
How is China likely to respond?
China has already taken economic measures. The government recently restricted exports to 40 Japanese companies, accusing them of contributing to Japan’s “remilitarization.” The Department of Commerce placed 20 companies on its export control list and added another 20 companies to its watch list.
Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Takashi Sato described the move as “deplorable” and “unacceptable.”
“If there are further provocations, China will extend sanctions to the civilian sector, which could literally halt Japanese car production, which is probably one of the reasons why the deployment date is set for 2031,” Tangen said.
Bertrand emphasized how much emphasis China places on Taiwan.
“Taiwan is not just important to China; it is what Chinese officials call the ‘core core’.”
“This is the only issue on which there is real consensus across Chinese society, government and military,” he said.
Economic interdependence also complicates matters.
China has been Japan’s largest trading partner since 2005. Bilateral trade will reach $322 billion in 2024, with China accounting for about one-fifth of Japan’s total imports and exports. Japan has a large trade deficit with China, importing about $43 billion more annually than exporting.
“Japan cannot simultaneously militarize China and maintain the economic relationship on which its prosperity depends. At some point Japan will have to make a choice, and Beijing is trying to make that choice as clear as possible,” Bertrand said.
