Japan’s unstable minority government appears to be ready for another set-off with a key Senate vote this weekend, marking the first national election since Prime Minister Isbaiba took office last year.
Half of Japan’s 248 Senate seats in the Senate will be contested on Sunday. Isba’s liberal Democrats (LDP) along with longtime junior coalition partner Komeito will need to win 50 of the 66 seats and hold a majority for reelection.
However, polls suggest that the Union will fail to do so with a potential repetition of the disastrous October election, with the LDP-Komeito Union losing its parliamentary majority in Japan’s stronger House of Representatives.
The LDP rules Japan for almost all of its postwar history.
Inflation has been a killer issue for Isba, with rice prices doubled since last year, yields and government policies doubled, making it a lightning bolt of voter dissatisfaction.
In response, the opposition parties have pledged tax cuts and welfare spending to ease the blow of Japan’s long-term economic stagnation.
While locals are facing rising costs of living, the country’s weak yen has attracted a significant number of foreign tourists. Overtourism concerns and lack of respect for local habits have given local dissatisfaction, which is being used by the emerging populist party Sanseito.
First launched in 2019 by streamer Kazuya Kyomoto, politician Sohei Kamiya and political analyst Yuya Waters, the party has earned conspiracy theory and far-right talk points as it became prominent during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Since then, Sansate has managed to oppose what is called “silent invasions” of immigrants in a small yet growing section of Japanese voters with “Japan’s first” campaign and anti-immigrant stance.
Foreigners still make up only a small portion of Japan’s population, but at around 3%, the country has attracted around 1 million migrant workers over the past three years, filling jobs vacant by the elderly population.
Kamiya, the party’s 47-year-old leader, said Sansate is forcing the government to address growing concerns about Japanese foreigners as it drags into the mainstream the rhetoric that the government has been trapped in political boundaries.
“In the past, anyone who raises immigrants is attacked to the left. We’ve been bashed too, but we’ve also gained support,” Kamiya told Reuters this week.
“LDP and Komeito cannot remain silent if they want to maintain support,” Kamiya added.
Polls show that Sancet can only secure 10-15 of the 125 seats in the vote, but each loss is important for Prime Minister Isba’s volatile minority government.
If LDP’s seat share is eroded, as expected, Isba will almost certainly try to broaden his coalition or attack informal deals with the opposition.
However, in doing so, Sansate could prove to be a problem for LDP. LDP owes much of its longevity to its wide range of appeal and centrism.
“For a party [LDP] Watanabe Tsuneo, a senior fellow at the Sagawa Peace Foundation think tank in Tokyo, told Reuters.
In the worst election results for the LDP, David Boring, director of Japanese and director of Asian trade at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, says he believes Isba might be taken from his job.
“I think he’s going to have to resign if he had an overwhelming loss,” Boring said.
But such a move would unleash political turmoil as Japan seeks to secure a deferral from the 25% tariff proposed by Donald Trump before the August 1 deadline to be promoted by the US president.
Showing the urgency of the issue, Isba took a break from the campaign on Friday to urge Washington’s tariff negotiator and Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent to continue consultations with Japan’s top tariff negotiator, Rhosie Akazawa.
Following his meeting with Isba, Bescent said, “There’s a significant deal more important than a rushed deal.
“The mutually beneficial trade agreements between the US and Japan remain within the realm of possibilities,” he added.
