MANCHESTER, UK – Usman Khan stands behind a counter with a neat row of colorful e-cigarettes lined up behind him. Outside, a biting wind is blowing down Denton High Street. Khan moved to Denton from nearby Gorton a while ago. Now he is one of 80,000 local residents thrust into the center of a battle for the future of British politics as they prepare to vote this month.
These Manchester suburbs are a microcosm of the wider story of contemporary British politics. While support for the centrist parties Labor and the Conservatives is collapsing, emerging left-wing and right-wing parties are surging in the polls. What happens in the parliamentary by-election on February 26 in the diverse constituency of Gorton and Denton will have repercussions all the way to Westminster. And analysts say it’s the local Muslim vote that holds the cards.
But for now, neither Kahn nor anyone else can say what decisions Denton and Gorton residents will make.
Bookmaker odds, often one of the more reliable measures, show this race to be incredibly close, with the left-wing Greens slightly ahead of the competition. However, this is not certain.
That confusion is being replicated in national opinion polls. After winning a landslide victory in 2024, Britain’s ruling Labor party has been in freefall following a series of U-turns and scandals.
Labour’s traditional opposition party, the Conservative Party, is still burdened by years of political turmoil from its time in power and is struggling in both local and national polls.
The Green Party and Reform Right Britain’s political opposition has benefited from the collapse of the centre.
In Gorton and Denton, “it’s a tough, tough battle between Labor and the reformists,” Khan told Al Jazeera. “I think the Greens will reduce Labor’s vote.”
For the Green Party, this election is an opportunity to build on its momentum in the polls.
“Mr Gorton and Mr Denton’s victories will show that the Green Party can win anywhere in this country,” Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer told Al Jazeera.
Labor is positioning itself as the only viable alternative to the anti-immigration Reform Party: “There’s a lot at stake in this election. It’s a choice between unity and division,” Labor candidate Stoja told Al Jazeera, arguing that voting for the Greens would benefit the Reform Party.
However, the local Labor Party also had problems. The vote to elect a new councilor for the area was prompted by the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Andrew Gwyn, citing health reasons, but quickly resigned following his alleged involvement in a local Labor scandal earlier this year. Labor then blocked the candidacy of Andy Burnham, the widely popular mayor of Manchester and a potential contender for the top job.
This turn of events is seen by some here as building on a pattern of weakness that has weakened Labor while giving space to Spencer and Reform’s Matthew Goodwin.
Mr Khan acknowledged Mr Burnham’s popularity, but Mr Denton’s left-wing vote was split evenly between Labor and the Green Party, with Reformists in the lead.
Goodwin is a former academic and right-wing commentator whose views on race have alienated many people in this prominent multicultural area of Manchester.
“To be honest, I would say reformers are popular, but reformist candidates are unpopular,” Khan explained, emphasizing the importance for voters of ties to the region they are elected to. “He’s not a Denton guy,” Kahn said.
Like many residents of Gorton and Denton, Khan wasn’t sure who he would ultimately vote for. Almost everyone Al Jazeera spoke to was dissatisfied with the political mainstream, which has repeatedly let them down.
For Conservative voters, such as support worker Susan, 58, from Gorton, who did not want to give her last name, the turmoil of past Conservative governments means a vote for reform. For people like Henry Iyoha, 57, a former Nigerian city councilor who now runs a stall at Gorton’s indoor market, years of Conservative government mean sticking with Labor, whatever their concerns about leadership or policy.
Predominantly white Denton and multicultural Gorton may be in the same district, but they are very different towns. For Iyoha, whatever success the reforms achieved in Denton is unlikely to be matched in Gorton.
“Reforming as a party is not important here,” he told Al Jazeera. “Gorton is an eclectic place.”
Professor Robert Ford of Manchester said that while Mr Denton might court reformists during local council elections, it was not at all clear whether he would continue to support anti-immigration parties in the by-election.
Gorton is more predictable. “This is a very diverse region with a large population of Muslims, immigrants, students, young professionals and families, all of which are areas where we expect the left and the Greens to do well,” he told Al Jazeera.
Muslims make up around 30% of the constituency of Gorton and Denton.
“The Muslim vote absolutely decides the election. It’s extremely important and difficult to predict,” Ford said. “These represent volatile swing votes. Labor was very surprised by the loss of Muslim votes in 2024.”
Voting in this month’s general election has become almost impossible to predict, with many turning against Labor over its support for Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.
Similarly, Goodwin, who is not from the region and is seen as an outsider, was a poor strategic choice for Reform, Ford said, but added that the party could benefit from a “strong anti-establishment vote” in the region, even among some Muslims.
No matter what happens with the vote, Khan’s life on Denton’s high street will continue. “Denton is a very nice guy,” he said. “It’s up to you. If you are good, all people are good.”
The Conservative Party and the Reform Party did not respond to requests for comment.
