In Scotland, growing distrust of government policy is discouraging landowners from letting out agricultural land, new research warns, warning that the sharecropping sector is “in decline”.
Research by Scottish Land and Estates (SLE) has revealed that fear of retroactive legal changes is the biggest barrier to letting land. Amid growing political uncertainty, landowner confidence is collapsing.
The survey of property and agricultural businesses across Scotland found that while 84% of respondents currently rent out land through secure or fixed-term leases, many are now reconsidering their future involvement in the sector.
When asked to identify the main obstacles to leasing land, 88% of respondents cited “fear of retroactive legal changes or lack of trust in government policy.”
This concern far outweighed other issues such as loss of control (76%), legal complexity (49%), and taxes (31%).
The findings come as MSPs prepare to debate the final stages of the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill, a wide-ranging package aimed at increasing access to land and strengthening tenant rights.
But the bill is controversial, with critics warning that retroactive provisions could prevent future rentals and destabilize long-term contracts.
Just 12% of respondents said they were optimistic about the future of the tenant sector, while more than 70% were pessimistic. Most blamed repeated government intervention and declining trust in rural policy-making.
Meanwhile, 74% said the proposed land reform bill changes would make them less likely to be granted land in the future.
Many landowners are instead looking to short-term or alternative arrangements such as annual grazing (used by 76% of respondents), contract farming (49%) and joint ventures (11%), which they say offer more flexibility and lower legal risk.
Scottish Land and Estates policy director Stephen Young said the results showed “clear and sobering evidence that people’s confidence in making land available for tenant farming is declining”.
He warned that “fear of retroactive legal change is becoming a determining factor in decision-making across the tenancy sector”.
“It is clear that previous changes to the law have had a negative impact on the amount of land allowed in Scotland and the lease terms available,” he said.
“We don’t seem to have learned anything from it and further damage will be done to Scotland’s rental sector with little regard for future tenants.”
Mr Young contrasted the situation in Scotland with the rest of the UK, pointing out that “England and Wales has not seen such a significant decline in rentable land”.
“Landowners are not looking for special treatment, they are looking for stability, fairness and trust in government policies,” he added. “Without it, the tenant sector will continue to shrink, negatively impacting future generations and the wider rural economy.”
Data from the Central Association of Agricultural Valuers (CAAV) shows that between 2008 and 2020, leases under the 1991 Act fell by 43%, while short-term fixed term leases (SLDTs) soared.
However, SLE warns that confidence in the SLDT could be shaken if the government enforces the new bill’s retroactive provisions.
“The current political climate is pushing landowners in the opposite direction,” Young said. “The decline in these leasehold options will only accelerate if the Scottish Government moves forward with capital resumption provisions against the advice of most of the agricultural sector.”
He concluded: “If ministers are serious about promoting diversity in land tenure, they must first rebuild trust with the people who make land available. Only then can they create the stable and fair framework needed to open up opportunities for the next generation of tenants.”
The Scottish Parliament is set to vote on the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill in the coming weeks, setting the stage for a defining moment for the future of Scotland’s tenant farming sector.
