As officials in Ottawa prepared for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first visit to India, Canadian police knocked on the door of a Sikh activist in Surrey, Vancouver, on Sunday, informing him that his life was in danger.
Moninder Singh, president of the Canadian Sikh Federation, had already received three such warnings from Vancouver police. But now police have cited a confidential informant who told Singh that his wife and two children were also at risk.
“I was told to make sure it applies to you and your wife and your two children as well,” the officer told Singh in a conversation recorded on his home’s doorbell camera.
Singh was an associate of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist and Canadian national who was assassinated in Canada in June 2023. The killing caused a major diplomatic incident. Canada has accused Indian government officials of involvement in Nijjar’s murder, calling it part of India’s cross-border crackdown on Sikh activists abroad.
But while Mr. Singh was informed of the threat to himself and his family on Sunday, two days before Mr. Carney arrived in New Delhi, a senior Canadian government official told reporters in an off-the-record briefing on Wednesday that “India is no longer a security threat.”
Analysts say this marks a major shift in Canada’s tone and approach to India under Mr Carney, who is seeking to diversify diplomatic relations to cushion the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Officials say Carney’s visit to New Delhi this week could mark the beginning of a reset in bilateral relations, which hit a low in recent years under former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
severance of ties
The atmosphere in Ottawa has already changed dramatically since Mr. Carney replaced Mr. Trudeau at the helm last March.
Relations between Canada and India have deteriorated under Prime Minister Trudeau, with retaliatory accusations and the expulsion of diplomats, especially since Nijjar’s murder in June 2023.
Nijjar was a prominent advocate of a Sikh homeland in the form of an independent state of Khalistan in India. New Delhi calls this separatism and considers Nijjar and other protesters to be “terrorists.”
After Mr. Nijjar’s murder, pressure mounted on Mr. Trudeau to hold him accountable from Canada’s influential Sikh diaspora. In October 2024, during a foreign interference inquiry, Prime Minister Trudeau said there were “clearer indications than ever” that India had violated Canada’s sovereignty by targeting Sikh activists in Canada.
Prime Minister Trudeau said India’s “actions” were a “terrible mistake.”
Canada also accused India of interfering in its domestic politics, including funding New Delhi’s favored politicians. India categorically rejected the allegations as “absurd” and called on Canada to take action against anti-India elements operating in the country, an apparent reference to Sikh activists.
But Nijjar’s murder has opened a can of worms for India’s establishment. In November 2023, the US Department of Justice indicted an Indian national for plotting to assassinate American lawyer and Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Panun.
Nikhil Gupta, 54, who was accused of plotting to kill Pannun, pleaded guilty to three criminal charges in federal court in New York City earlier this month. He could be sentenced to up to 40 years in prison if he admits to committing murder, conspiracy to commit murder, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.
Sikh activists in the UK were also reportedly warned of threats from the Indian government.
Harsh Pant, a foreign policy analyst in New Delhi, said Trudeau’s approach to the issue has in some ways become emblematic of the problems in the bilateral relationship.
He added that his confrontational approach “meant that issues that could be dealt with at a bureaucratic level were elevated to a strategic level”, making it difficult to disentangle the two.
A cold relationship is thawed
When Carney was elected as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Party in 2025, he replaced Justin Trudeau amid historic tensions with the United States and concerns about a trade war with the Trump administration. Mr. Carney took to the stage to actively seek new partners to help alleviate this threat.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi jumped in to congratulate him and immediately called for “strengthening our partnership and unlocking greater opportunities for our people.”
Soon after, Prime Minister Carney invited Prime Minister Modi to Canada for the G7 summit last June, and the two leaders met on the sidelines. New envoys from both countries followed. Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst, said suddenly everything in the relationship changed.
“There is more optimism and momentum in the relationship,” Kugelman told Al Jazeera. Under Carney, the Canadian government “recognized that this relationship is too important to ignore.”
The commercial incentives for Canada to get the relationship back on track are huge. “And it all starts with changing the tone and atmosphere,” Kugelman said. Hence this week’s comments from Canadian officials that “India is no longer a threat.”
Bina Najibullah, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, told Al Jazeera that Ottawa has moved from an official crisis-driven posture to a more planned and gradual “reset.”
Under Carney, she argued, “the focus has been on rebuilding structured channels to address security concerns, including cross-border repression and interference, through sustained law enforcement and national security cooperation rather than megaphone diplomacy.”
“Ottawa is trying to do both at the same time, upholding the rule of law at home while advancing areas of mutual interest abroad.”
But Carney’s change in approach does not mean the issue of intimidation against Sikh activists has disappeared.
“There is no doubt that Canadian authorities remain concerned about the issue of cross-border repression, especially as legal proceedings continue,” Kugelman said.
The current Canadian government is simply taking a different approach, he suggested, “a more ‘conciliatory’ approach, one that essentially focuses on resolving this issue with India.”
Foreign Minister Anita Anand, unlike Canadian officials at an off-the-record briefing, avoided direct questions from reporters about whether India was no longer seen as a threat. Instead, she said discussions on the issue of cross-border violence were ongoing at the highest levels of both governments.
Pant, vice chairman of Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank, said New Delhi also wants to address the issue of “Khalistan extremism”, which is a challenge for Carney.
Future direction
On Friday, Prime Minister Carney will begin a two-day visit to New Delhi, where the two prime ministers will meet at Hyderabad House and review the India-Canada Strategic Partnership.
The Canadian prime minister is also expected to conclude deals on trade and investment, including energy, critical minerals, agriculture, education, research and people-to-people links.
Cooperation in these areas will determine the future trajectory of the relationship, Pant said.
Ultimately, the main external factor driving Carney’s visit to New Delhi is President Trump’s trade war, Kugelman said. Both Canada and India have soured relations with the United States, their largest trading partner, since President Trump returned to the White House last January.
India has stabilized its relationship with the United States somewhat this year since trade talks reached final stages, but Ottawa and Washington remain at odds over worldviews and international trade.
“[Carney’s approach] “This is part of a broader global trend that we’re seeing, where countries that have long worked with the United States are now looking to strengthen their relationships with other partners. From the perspective of Ottawa and New Delhi, it makes perfect sense that we not only have to get this relationship back on track, but we also have to put it in a position to grow further,” Kugelman said.
Najibullah, of the Canada Asia-Pacific Foundation, added that India is key to Canada’s efforts to reduce over-reliance on the United States and diversify its economic and strategic partnerships.
However, unresolved issues such as cross-border violence undermine the sustainability of the currently blossoming bilateral relationship, she added.
“Normalization becomes politically fragile if unresolved security questions are left in the background without reliable processes and law enforcement cooperation,” Najibullah told Al Jazeera. “Very susceptible to the next incident, leak, or courtroom development.”
