Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said the recent trilateral initiative between Bangladesh, China and Islamabad could be “expanded” to include other regional countries and beyond.
“We oppose zero-sum approaches and have consistently emphasized the imperative of cooperation rather than confrontation,” he told the Islamabad Conclave forum on Wednesday.
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In effect, the proposal amounted to the creation of an alternative South Asia-focused bloc with China, as the region’s main body, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), has become largely dysfunctional due to heightened tensions between India and Pakistan in recent years.
In June, diplomats from China, Pakistan and Bangladesh held tripartite talks focused on regional stability, economic development and improving people’s lives, but said the cooperation was “not directed at any third party”.
Dar’s comments come against a backdrop of rising tensions in the region, including decades of conflict between Pakistan and India. The two nuclear-armed neighbors engaged in a brief four-day air war in May, further straining relations.
Meanwhile, relations between Dhaka and New Delhi have deteriorated rapidly following the ouster of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August last year. Hasina fled to India after being ousted in a popular uprising, but New Delhi has so far refused to extradite the former prime minister to Bangladesh, where she was found guilty of crimes against humanity by a court in November and sentenced to death.
But will most of the other South Asian countries (SAARC is made up of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Afghanistan) agree to a new regional grouping that seems aimed at excluding India, or at least limiting its influence?
Here’s what you need to know:
What is Pakistan’s proposal?
Deputy Prime Minister Dar, who is also Pakistan’s foreign minister, said the trilateral initiative with Bangladesh and China aims to “promote mutual cooperation” in areas of common interest, and the concept will be “expanded and replicated” to include more countries and regions.
“As I said earlier, there can be groups with different geometries on issues ranging from economics to technology to connectivity,” he said at a conference in Islamabad.
“Our own national development needs and regional priorities cannot and should not be held hostage to anyone’s rigidities. You know where I am referring,” he said, clearly referring to India.
Regarding tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi, Prime Minister Dar noted that the “structured dialogue” process between India and Pakistan remained stalled for “more than 11 years”, adding that other regional countries similarly had “see-saw relationships with neighboring India”.
The foreign minister said Pakistan envisions a South Asia where connectivity and cooperation replace division, “where economies grow in synergy, disputes are resolved peacefully in accordance with international legitimacy, and peace is maintained with dignity and honor.”
Academic Rabia Akhtar said the proposals at this stage are likely to be “more ambitious than practical”.
“However, this indicates Pakistan’s intention to diversify and rethink regional cooperation mechanisms at a time when SAARC remains paralyzed,” Akhtar, director of the Center for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) at the University of Lahore, told Al Jazeera.
What is the regional organization SAARC?
SAARC was established in 1985 at a summit in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
The founding members were Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan joined as the eighth member state in 2007.
According to its website, SAARC’s objectives include improving the welfare and quality of life of South Asians and promoting economic growth and cultural development.
Despite its lofty ambitions, the organization has struggled to achieve its goals over the past four decades. This is largely due to decades of tensions between India and Pakistan since independence from Britain in 1947, with the two countries fighting three full-scale wars coinciding with the partition of the subcontinent.
The 19th SAARC summit in 2016, which was scheduled to be hosted by Islamabad, was postponed indefinitely following India’s withdrawal to blame Pakistan for deadly attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir.
“Agreement is needed for the organization to function, and without the political will of its two largest members to separate regional cooperation from bilateral conflict, SAARC cannot move forward,” CSSPR’s Akhtar said.
The last summit of the regional body was held in Kathmandu, Nepal in 2014. However, analysts say that although SAARC remains inactive, the organization has the potential to serve the region if India and Pakistan allow it.
Why is SAARC important?
As of 2025, SAARC countries will account for more than 2 billion of the world’s population, making South Asia the most densely populated region in the world.
But intra-South Asian trade is minimal, accounting for only about 5% of the region’s total trade, or about $23 billion, the World Bank said. By contrast, trade between ASEAN member states, a bloc of 11 Southeast Asian countries home to about 700 million people, accounts for 25% of international trade, the Washington-based organization said.
The World Bank estimates that South Asian countries could exchange $67 billion worth of goods, three times their current trade volume, by reducing barriers.
In particular, the trade situation between India and Pakistan remains dire. In the 2017-2018 fiscal year, official trade between the two neighboring countries was just $2.41 billion. It will further decline, halving to $1.2 billion by 2024, but experts say informal trade between the two countries via other countries is larger, at about $10 billion.
Lack of regional connectivity is cited as one of the main reasons for weak trade links in the region.
In 2014, the group was preparing to sign a motor vehicle agreement that would allow cars and trucks to travel across South Asia, similar to Europe. However, Pakistan blocked that deal and another on regional rail cooperation amid tensions with India.
Since then, the group has only been able to come together on a few occasions, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic when member states established an emergency fund and set aside $7.7 billion to help address the public health crisis.
“If both countries [India and Pakistan] In principle, SAARC could be revived if it could identify even limited avenues for cooperation for broader regional interests,” analyst Farwa Aamer told Al Jazeera.
“However, given the current political dynamics, such a breakthrough seems a distant prospect,” added Armer, director of the South Asia Initiative at the Asian Social Policy Institute (ASPI).
However, Pakistan is not the first country to try to circumvent SAARC to build regional partnerships. After SAARC failed to approve a regional transport agreement, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (a group known as BBIN after the countries’ initials) signed similar agreements among themselves.
India is also participating in other regional organizations such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Aamer pointed out. BIMSTEC includes India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Still, overall, “in the near to medium term” “bilateral and trilateral agreements will continue to dominate” over “regional multilateralism”, Armer said. That’s because dealing with just one or two countries at a time tends to be “more flexible, has clearer incentives and is more likely to produce tangible results,” he said.
Will Pakistan’s proposal work?
Academic Akhtar said the success of this proposal would depend on two factors.
“First, whether a promising nation would see functional value in smaller, issue-focused groups at a time when traditional structures are at a standstill, and second, whether participation would not pose political costs for India.”
Akhtar said several South Asian countries may show tentative interest in Pakistan’s proposed regional initiative, but any moves toward formal participation are expected to be limited.
“I think countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives and perhaps Bhutan could be open to exploratory engagement, particularly around connectivity, climate adaptation and economic resilience,” she said.
However, Akhtar noted that India’s regional sensitivities and broader geopolitical conflicts with Pakistan and China “will make it cautious about actually acquiring membership.”
Nevertheless, ASPI’s Amer believes Pakistan’s offer was “strategically coherent”.
“This country is at a diplomatically agile moment,” he said, adding: “While maintaining our strong relationship with China, we have at the same time renewed and improved relations with the United States and the Gulf states.”
“This dual-track engagement has given Islamabad confidence, reaffirmed its status as an important regional actor, and essentially given it the ambition to regain its place at the center of regional diplomacy.”
