Research shows that the deployment of EU hydrogen stations can cause annual losses

With hydrogen infrastructure deployed in the EU, refueling stations must be distributed in all countries according to the same principles. However, a study at Sweden’s Chalmers Institute of Technology points out the shortcomings of EU regulations.

Using advanced models, researchers have shown that both refueling station distributions are incorrectly sized, leading to losses of tens of millions of euros per year in some countries.

By 2030, EU countries must have built hydrogen fueling stations on major roads and all city nodes at least every 200 kilometres. The aim is to promote the introduction of hydrogen-driven transport. This is dominated by the Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) that came into effect in 2023.

However, Chalmers’ research, based on data from 600,000 cargo routes across Europe, shows that in many cases the requirements do not reflect actual demand.

“Geospatial distribution of hydrogen demand and refueling infrastructure in Europe in long-distance trucks” was published in the International Journal of Hydrogen Energy.

By modeling how hydrogen-powered long-distance trucks will work in 2050, researchers show not only where hydrogen infrastructure is in the highest demand, but how current EU regulations risk the risk of major losses in some countries.

“EU laws are based on distance, but traffic volumes vary in other ways across countries. According to our model, France’s capacity should be seven times higher than what the EU needs by 2030. As a result, deployment under AFIR should be supplemented, but must be supplemented.

However, countries like Bulgaria, Romania and Greece do not have the same traffic volume and are forced to build infrastructure that is unlikely to be used to the same extent. This could be tens of millions of euros per year for investment and operational costs of unused capacity.

Accurate simulation reflects demand

In addition to taking traffic and distance into consideration, Chalmers’ research includes topographical data from the European Space Agency. One important insight is that geographical topography plays a greater role in energy demand than previously expected.

“Many models use the average energy demand of trucks. However, when parameters such as gradients and speeds are included, the demand profile changes significantly. This gives you a more accurate basis for where the infrastructure is actually needed,” says Joel Lefving.

This study focused on long distance traffic, i.e. distances of over 360km. This is because it is likely to be covered in battery-powered product vehicles in the future.

“We looked at the direction of truck technology development. Many of the current studies show that batteries can cover shorter distances, but alternatives such as hydrogen may be needed as long distance supplements,” says Joel Löfving.

Political interest in demand-based development

The researcher’s model looks further than the requirements for 2030, analyzing how investments in hydrogen infrastructure can be sustainable in the long term. This study has already been used to inform political debates in both Sweden and the EU regarding how to plan the deployment of hydrogen infrastructure.

“At the EU level, we were able to provide feedback for the assessment of AFIR in 2026. My hope is to influence the development of the law in a way that takes into account the specific circumstances of each country,” says Löfving.

“AFIR is a good start for Sweden, but investing in expensive new technologies is always risky. The long time frame for this study has been that it ultimately helped us to contribute to the discussion on how to build an economically sustainable refueling network that will facilitate the market for deuterium vehicles.”

This study was conducted within the framework of TechForH2, a Chalmers-led Center for Excellence for Interdisciplinary Hydrogen Research, with the overall purpose of developing new hydrogen propulsion technologies for heavy vehicles.

It is also part of a larger research project aimed at analyzing the systemic effects of the transport sector’s transition to hydrogen.