Thai voters will head to the polls on Sunday amid deep political uncertainty. The country has seen three changes in prime minister in recent years, and the ceasefire with Cambodia is still in limbo due to border clashes that left 149 people dead.
The snap poll pitted Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjathai Party, backed by Thailand’s conservative royalists, against the youth-led progressive People’s Party.
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The People’s Party is the successor organization to a group that won the last election but was blocked from power and disbanded by the courts over proposals to reform the country’s powerful monarchy.
The Pro-Thai Party, which has dominated Thai politics for a quarter of a century, is also trying to make a comeback after a harrowing period that saw two prime ministers removed from the party by courts and party founder Thaksin Shinawatra jailed late last year.
Sunday’s vote is seen as a test of whether Thailand can break its years-long cycle of coups, street protests and court intervention, or whether paralysis deepens further.
Here’s what you need to know about the pivotal election.
When is the election?
Voting will take place on Sunday, February 8th.
About 53 million people in the kingdom of 71 million people are eligible to vote.
The 500-member House of Representatives is reserved on a mixed system, with 400 seats in constituencies elected on a first-come, first-served basis and 100 seats allocated on a proportional representation or party-list basis.
The newly elected House of Commons will then choose the next prime minister. Unlike in 2019 and 2023, the appointed upper house, which has a majority of conservative members, will not have the role of choosing the prime minister.
A candidate needs 251 votes in the House of Commons to become prime minister.
Voters receive three ballots, two for parliamentary elections and one for a referendum on whether to amend the constitution.
When will I know the results?
Polling stations open at 8am (01:00 GMT) and close at 5pm (10:00 GMT). Vote counting will begin immediately after, and the results will be announced once the counting is complete.
The leading party is expected to be known by early Monday morning.
Voter turnout is expected to be high. Around 87% of pre-registered voters turned out to vote during early voting in the capital Bangkok earlier this week.
Who are the main candidates?
Bumjaitai
Bumjaithai, led by Anutin, rose to prominence in 2019 for its support for medical cannabis. The party has transformed from a mid-level kingmaker that won 51 seats in 2019 and 71 seats in 2023 to a conservative force that is currently striving to become one of the largest parties in Congress.
The country’s Supreme Court, with support from the Nationalist Party, established the current government after Thaksin’s daughter Pethunthaan Shinawatra was dismissed as prime minister over her handling of the border crisis between Thailand and Cambodia.
Anutin initially promised constitutional reforms and elections within four months, but the Nationalist Party accused him of reneging on the agreement in December. Facing the risk of a vote of no confidence, he dissolved the House of Commons and held a mass vote.
Bhumjaitai has now rebranded itself as a staunch defender of the monarchy and has gained momentum through defections, attracting 64 of the 91 MPs who have switched parties since 2023.
Napon Jatulipitak, director of the Center for Politics and Geopolitics at think tank Thailand Future, said Bhumjaitai was seen as a “realist” and was now “advocating a conservative position” from a party run by a former general.
People’s Party
The People’s Party is the third iteration of the reformist movement, whose previous incarnations (most recently Move Forward) were dissolved by the courts.
The party campaigns to reduce the political power of unelected institutions such as the military and judiciary.
In the past, he openly called for the revision of Thailand’s lese majeste law, which makes defamation and insults against the monarchy a criminal offense, but he has softened his stance in this campaign.
Chulalongkorn University international relations professor Thithinan Ponsdhirak said the group was “strange and unprecedented” in Thai politics.
“It was the first political party not driven by patronage or plutocracy, driven not by individuals or local leaders, but by reform ideas and policies,” he said.
thai style
The Pro-Thai Party and its predecessors dominated Thai politics for 25 years through populist policies that secured working-class support and strong electoral institutions, especially in the north and northeast.
Despite Thaksin’s imprisonment and the removal of six prime ministers in a coup and court ruling, the party has avoided mass defections and remained competitive.
The group, led by Thaksin’s nephew Yocchanan Wongsawat, is running a campaign to appeal to Shinawatra’s nostalgia.
Thai Future’s Napon said the Thai Contribution Party could fall to third place, a “significant drop in rankings compared to the previous election.” Still, he said the party could win back some seats from the progressive camp in its northern stronghold.
What do the polls suggest?
In a January 30 poll by the National Institute for Development Administration, People’s Party leader Nattaporn Ruempanyawut was ranked first among prime minister candidates with 29.1%, followed by Anutin in second place with 22.4%.
Yochanan followed in fourth place.
In the list of political parties, the People’s Party topped the list with 34.2 percent, followed by Bumjaithai with 22.6 percent and the Thai Contribution Party with 16.2 percent.
What are the important issues?
The People’s Party has so far proposed more than 200 policies, including abolishing military conscription, drafting a new democratic constitution, overhauling the bureaucracy and launching a state aid program to support small and medium-sized enterprises.
Bhumjaitai has focused on economic stimulus and security, pledging to raise annual growth to 3%, expand the welfare system, build a border wall and make military service more attractive through paid volunteer posts.
Anutin also vowed to protect the monarchy, saying at a rally in Bangkok that any reform of the lese majeste law “will never happen and will never succeed because of us.”
Meanwhile, the Thailand Contribution Party has focused its campaign on debt relief, income support for low-income earners, and transportation subsidies. It also announced a “Millionaire Maker” program that will award nine daily prizes worth 1 million baht ($31,556) each.
How will Cambodia be considered?
Clashes between Thailand and Cambodia erupted on the border in July and ended with a second ceasefire in December. The clashes fueled nationalist fervor, strengthened the appeal of Bhumjaithai, and highlighted the fragility of Thailand’s contributing countries.
Petuntarung of the Thailand Contribution Party was forced out of his post as prime minister in September over a leaked telephone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. In doing so, he is said to have pandered to Hun Sen and criticized the Thai commander.
Ponchada Siribunnabod, an associate professor of social sciences and humanities at Bangkok’s Mahidol University, said nationalism could boost support for Anutin.
“They use this [nationalism] As a concept of support in these elections, many members of different political parties migrated to Bhumjaitai. This will ensure that we win many seats at the constituency level,” she said.
Meanwhile, she said questions about the Shinawatra family’s ties to Hun Sen were haunting the campaigning of To-Thai Party candidates.
“This border dispute has caused great damage to the Thai Contribution Party,” she said.
What will happen to the constitutional amendment?
Alongside the parliamentary elections, voters will also be asked whether to replace the 2017 constitution, which was drafted under military rule after a 2014 coup.
Even if passed, the process would be long and uncertain, requiring parliamentary action, Senate support to amend key provisions, and at least two more referendums.
Opinion polls show overwhelming support for a “yes” vote, but this does not guarantee a new or democratic charter.
“It depends entirely on the balance of power after the election,” Napon said. “Even a more conservative Congress could enact a conservative constitution.”
Will this end Thailand’s political turmoil?
It is unlikely that any party will win a majority, making it essential to form a coalition government. However, Napon said that if one of the three major parties were to leave, the new government would be “very likely to become unstable” because the coalition between two of the three parties would fall short of a majority.
Meanwhile, Chulalongkorn University’s Thitinan said he was not encouraged by Thailand’s electoral history.
He said the results of a vote are fully respected only once every 25 years, noting that other elections have been overturned by military coups or judicial intervention.
“Establishment forces and prejudices are so deep-seated and so deeply entrenched that the Reform and Progressive Party will need to win by a convincing and large margin to have any chance of coming to power,” he said.
“It seems like a slim chance that there will be such a wide margin, unless Thai voters are fed up enough to see through the pretense and fraud that has kept Thailand backward and further behind its peers,” he added.
