The EIR report covers the withdrawal of coal, trends in renewable energy,
and the future of U.S. electricity supply.
Calgary, AB (November 18, 2025) Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-only SaaS company that leverages generated AI across its solutions, announces its long-term U.S. power capacity growth outlook based on proprietary load forecasting, interconnect queue analysis, and technology cost curves.
The EIR projects that three distinct eras will increase installed power generation capacity in the United States by 57% by 2050, driven by three distinct eras: rapid growth in solar energy by 2028, medium-term changes in which coal-fired power generation is completely phased out and replaced by natural gas and nuclear power, and steady long-term growth due to the rise of the U.S. nuclear industry. Renewable energy installations are expected to peak in 2028, but remain competitive, supported by continued demand and low costs for power purchase agreements (PPAs).
“Our analysis shows that the U.S. power grid is undergoing a transformation, with a near-term surge in solar PV installations and a dominant role for nuclear in the coming decades. The retirement of coal and the rise of new technologies will reshape the region’s electricity generation mix and drive innovation in grid reliability and energy sustainability,” said Dr. Juan Arteaga, principal analyst at EIR.
Important points:
U.S. installed electricity capacity is projected to increase by 57% by 2050 through three eras: rapid growth in solar energy (2025-2035), coal substitution (2035-2040), and steady nuclear expansion (2040-2050). Renewable energy installations are expected to peak in 2028, but strong PPA demand and low costs will keep them competitive as tax credits are phased out. Coal-fired power is expected to be completely phased out by 2040, replaced equally by natural gas and nuclear power. More than 25 GW of fuel switching will take place in the Midcontinent Independent Operators (MISO) region. Wind energy, natural gas, and nuclear power are the most load-sensitive technologies, and capacity additions remain relatively insensitive to changes in demand. Batteries and gas speaker plants play a critical role in grid reliability, while combined cycle natural gas plants and nuclear power plants provide essential baseload support.
EIR analysis comes from a variety of products, including Enverus PRISM, Enverus FOUNDATIONS® – Power & Renewables, and Enverus Instant Analyst™.
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