U.S.-Iran talks end without agreement, but signs of progress; technical talks scheduled for next week in Vienna; OPEC+ to consider increasing oil production in April, sources said
Oil prices rose by more than $1 on Friday as traders remained wary of possible supply disruptions following the extension of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran.
Brent crude oil futures rose $1.38, or 1.95%, to $72.13 a barrel by 1110 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.40, or 2.15%, to $66.61.
“Uncertainty prevails and fear is driving prices today,” said Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage PVM. “It depends entirely on the outcome of the Iran nuclear negotiations and any military action the United States may take against Iran.”
Brent was expected to end the week up 0.2%, while WTI was expected to fall 0.1%.
The United States and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday after US President Donald Trump ordered a military buildup in the region.
Oil prices rose by more than $1 a barrel during the talks, following media reports that talks were stalled over the U.S. insistence on zero uranium enrichment by Iran. However, prices softened after an Omani mediator said there had been progress in negotiations between the two sides.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Saeed Badr Albusaidi told X that negotiations will resume with technical-level talks scheduled for next week in Vienna.
“We think these talks offer some hope for the possibility of a peaceful solution, but there is absolutely no chance of a military attack,” said Subro Sarkar, an analyst at DBS.
President Trump said on February 19 that “really bad things” will happen if Iran doesn’t reach an agreement on its nuclear program within 10 to 15 days.
Sarkar said a geopolitical risk premium of $8 to $10 per barrel was built into oil prices due to concerns that the conflict could disrupt Middle East supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass.
Two sources familiar with the plans told Reuters that Saudi Arabia is ramping up oil production and exports to cushion the impact of a possible attack.
Meanwhile, the producer group OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in April at its meeting on March 1, after suspending production increases in the first quarter, sources said.
Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London Additional reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Nicole Jao in New York Edited by David Goodman
