A rushed deal with the EU on crop protection rules could cost UK producers up to £810m a year, wiping out more than 10% of farm income, new analysis has warned.
The findings come from an Anderson’s Center report commissioned by CropLife UK and published today (29 January), which examines the impact of the UK immediately following EU decisions on plant protection products post-Brexit.
The analysis warns that farmers could lose access to key crop protection tools almost overnight if the EU decision is allowed to override GB’s approval without a transition period.
In this scenario, production of key staples such as wheat and potatoes, as well as fresh produce such as apples, berries and leafy vegetables, would be hit, with domestic food production already under pressure.
The report highlights that these losses are likely to occur as producers continue to face high costs for labor, fuel and other inputs, putting further pressure on farm incomes and threatening the UK’s food security.
The NFU echoed these concerns, warning that immediate and full alignment with EU rules could cost the arable, horticulture and sugar sectors between £500m and £810m in the first year alone.
The central risk is the sudden loss of approved plant protection products. Since January 2021, four new products have been approved in the UK following safety and sustainability assessments, but none have yet been approved in the EU.
The NFU warned that immediate adjustments in June 2027 could prevent producers from accessing these tools before the EU review takes place, reducing their ability to control weeds, pests and diseases across combinable crops, fruit, vegetables and root crops.
CropLife UK chief executive Dave Bench said the findings showed why careful negotiations were essential.
“The Anderson’s Center report is important evidence,” he said. “We support the UK Government’s aim to conclude an SPS agreement with the EU that will reduce trade tensions.”
“However, it is important to understand the costs and consequences of different approaches before entering into an SPS contract,” he added. “This report shows how damaging a bad deal can be.”
This analysis also highlights the growing challenge of resistance management. Warming and wetter conditions are allowing pests to overwinter and reproduce more rapidly, increasing pressure on existing products.
The report warns that further loss of active substances will reduce the range of tools available to growers, intensify resistance problems and build up greater productivity challenges for the future.
However, both the report and the NFU stress that these impacts are not inevitable.
The Andersons Center argues that a managed harmonization process between the UK and the EU could significantly reduce disruption by phasing in changes through planned reviews and update points, rather than immediately triggering a regulatory ‘cliff edge’.
The NFU supports that approach and warns that growers are already making long-term planting and cropping decisions and will be directly affected by sudden rule changes.
NFU Chairman Tom Bradshaw said: “It is vital that we have an appropriate transition period in place to enable agricultural businesses to adapt.”
He said UK farmers should maintain access to GB-approved plant protection products until EU rules are next reviewed, rather than being forced into sudden changes by arbitrary deadlines.
The NFU said uncertainty over the shape of the future sanitary and phytosanitary agreement was already delaying investment decisions and called on ministers to clearly communicate the outcome of the negotiations as soon as possible.
The report concludes that the Government needs to fully understand the consequences of the SPS Agreement before signing it, ensure a managed transition that respects the UK’s legitimate decisions, and ensure meaningful UK involvement in future regulatory choices.
The report warns that decisions taken now will shape agricultural productivity, food security and investment for years to come, and that getting the negotiations wrong could lock in long-term damage to British agriculture.
