Ella Feldman
Rystad Energy says that despite the US investment push in Venezuela, Argentina, Guyana and Brazil remain poised to lead South America’s oil production growth for years to come.
The consulting firm estimates that flagship projects in the three countries will increase oil production by more than 700,000 barrels per day this year, compared with Venezuela’s potential 300,000 barrels per day. These countries will outpace Venezuela until at least 2030, the consulting firm said.
Since the brazen arrest of former leader Nicolás Maduro a month ago, the White House has been urging U.S. oil companies to fast-track investments in Venezuela. But amid political and business uncertainty, the country’s beleaguered oil industry faces a long road to full recovery.
Read more: Are Trump’s big plans for Venezuelan oil realistic?: QuickTake
“Venezuela oil production could make sense even in an environment of rising oil prices if the industry now starts to make more long-term, economically rational choices,” said Radhika Bansal, vice president of oil and gas research at Rystad. “But the more attractive barrels are here to stay, as Venezuela’s super-heavy, high-emissions oil poses a persistent challenge.”
Investment in Latin America’s oil industry is expected to increase in 2026, but will primarily be consolidated into projects with near-guaranteed returns on investment, Rystad said. This includes greenfield projects in Guyana and Suriname, as well as further investments in the Baca Muerte region of Argentina.
Overall, Rystad expects oil production in Latin America to exceed 8.8 million barrels per day this year, led by Brazil. Argentina’s shale investment will be a major driver of growth. The company expects Latin America’s shale sector to grow from $9.4 billion in 2025 to nearly $11 billion this year.
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