DHAKA, Bangladesh – Bangladesh’s February 12 elections handed the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) a landslide victory, forming the first elected government since the July 2024 mass uprising that toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League.
The election, which ousted former ruler Awami League, has been seen as a litmus test for political change in Bangladesh, but observers say the overwhelming election of the BNP, one of only two parties to remain in continuous power since independence in 1971, suggests Bangladeshis may prefer to stick with what they know.
On Friday, the Electoral Commission released unofficial results showing the BNP had won 209 of the 297 seats already announced. There are 68 Jamaat-e-Muslims in Bangladesh. The National Citizens Party (NCP) has six members. Small party, few seats. And seven seats are held by independents.
In this election, 299 of the 300 seats in the National Assembly were up for grabs. Voter turnout was approximately 60%.
Registered voters also voted in a referendum to approve the constitutional amendment, but only just over 60% voted “yes” to the July national charter outlining the amendment.
Although the final official results are not yet in, BNP Secretary-General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir hailed the landslide victory as proof that the BNP is “the people’s party.” The party is scheduled to form a government on Sunday.
On Friday night, the BNP’s main opponent in this election, Jamaat-e-Islami, had not yet conceded defeat and said it was not “satisfied” with the vote count, raising “serious questions about the integrity of the results process.”
Analysts fear this marks a return to the divisive politics of the past in Bangladesh.
Vote for friendliness and experience
Asif Mohammad Shahan, a development studies professor at Dhaka University, said the results show that in times of uncertainty, most people would rather have a well-known political group come to power.
“The fact that voters chose the BNP means that they have finally chosen a political force that they are familiar with. They seem to prefer a party that they already know has experience in governing, although they had concerns about some of its past practices,” he told Al Jazeera.
Ultimately, this result shows that the people of Bangladesh have chosen to return to institutional politics after the turmoil of 2024, rather than embrace any ideological shift represented by the student-led National Civic Party, which teamed up with the Jamaat to fight this election.
Political historian Mohiuddin Ahmad told Al Jazeera that this election was almost “a repeat of the 2001 election”. At this time, the BNP’s approval ratings soared, winning 193 seats, beating out the previous government’s Awami League, which had secured only 62 seats.
The real litmus test going forward will be to see how well the opposition cooperates in the new parliament, he said. “Parliamentary democracy succeeds when the Ministry of Finance and the opposition cooperate together,” he told Al Jazeera.
But can Bangladesh distance itself from the divisive politics of the past?
two competing missions
But political reform is never off the table, and experts say this may eventually lead the country back to those good old days.
On Thursday, Bangladesh also held a referendum on the July National Charter, a blueprint for constitutional reforms born out of the 2024 uprising and aimed at restructuring the country’s governance structure. It has been overseen by an interim government since Hasina’s ouster.
The charter proposes a new bicameral parliament, new procedures for appointing constitutional institutions such as electoral commissions, and stronger institutional checks to reduce winner-take-all executive control.
It also outlines broader constitutional reforms, including expanding fundamental rights and limiting unilateral constitutional amendments.
With around 60% voting in favor on Thursday, the referendum will create a reform mandate in tandem with the BNP’s parliamentary majority.
These two obligations may not be perfectly aligned, Shahan said.
The BNP remained skeptical about July’s national charter referendum for months during its interim government, sometimes saying no until party leader Tariq Rahman publicly supported a yes vote on January 30, something the main opposition Jamaat coalition was keen to point out during its campaign.
Therefore, “the BNP manifesto is inconsistent with the July Charter to a significant extent,” Shahan pointed out.
During the election campaign, the BNP pledged to support the implementation of the Charter if voters approved it in a referendum. But Ahmad pointed out that the BNP’s previous opposition to parts of the charter meant the party may not feel obligated to implement all of the charter’s reforms.
The BNP, in particular, is likely to oppose proportional representation and a new design for the Senate, arguing that this could weaken its parliamentary majority under the current electoral system.
The magnitude of the election victory shows that the public expects the BNP to keep its election promises, particularly on corruption and institutional reform. Therefore, the decision not to pursue certain reforms will require explanations to the public, Ahmed said.
But the BNP’s overwhelming majority could make it easier for it to advance unopposed by weaker opposition.
“People with a majority are naturally much better equipped to implement policy and reform,” said political analyst Dilara Chowdhury. But this dominance in parliament means less accountability.
“Given the political costs, there are serious concerns that there is a possibility of a return to confrontational politics,” Shahan warned.
Awami League Elements
This landslide result will also reshape Bangladesh’s party system in the absence of Awami League. The Awami League was barred from running in the current elections following President Hasina’s brutal crackdown on protesters in July 2024, which left around 1,400 people dead.
Some observers criticized the move, saying it would have been more credible to allow voters to reject the party by refusing to vote for it through democratic means.
Bangladeshi politics was previously dominated by the BNP and Awami League, but their absence also raises the possibility of an asymmetrical political field now dominated by a single major party, analysts say.
The results of this election seem to indicate that this may be true.
Shahan pointed out that the BNP’s incentives to facilitate Awami League’s return to politics are limited. But he warned that if voters become disenchanted with both traditional actors and reformists, failure to achieve reforms and effective governance could once again open the door for a revival of the Awami League.
For now, post-election stability will depend on two factors, Shahan said. One is whether the opposition accepts the results and participates constructively in parliament, and the other is whether the BNP uses its strong mandate to pursue inclusive reforms rather than majoritarian consolidation.
diplomatic balancing act
Shahab Enam Khan, a geopolitical analyst and professor of international relations at Dhaka’s Jahangirnagar University, said the landslide puts the BNP at the center of both domestic and regional restructuring after the 2024 uprising.
The election will have a “direct impact” on the region, he added.
In particular, relations between India and Bangladesh, where Hasina is in exile, have drawn the ire of many Bangladeshis who want her extradited after Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) sentenced her to death in November for ordering the firing of protesters in 2024.
“The Sheikh Hasina factor will always remain… extradition will continue to be on the agenda, but in reality it may not happen given her relationship with politics in Delhi,” Khan said.
“This will be a government that will receive unprecedented support from all world powers, including regional neighbors,” Khan told Al Jazeera. The United States is likely to continue the engagement that began under the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, but China will remain an important partner given its market-oriented approach to Bangladesh, regardless of which party is in power.
As a result, relations with India, which were warm under Hasina, may become more transactional. “[Bangladesh’s] “The foreign policy will be very confident and thereby Bangladesh-India relations will become more transactional…BNP expects more cooperation from Delhi on the basis of reciprocity,” he said.
Regarding Pakistan, he said, “Islamabad has historically had good relations with both the BNP and the Jamaat, so it will continue to have good relations with Dhaka…There will be improved trade and investment ties and perhaps security cooperation as well.”
However, simultaneously balancing relations with India, China, the United States, and Pakistan could pose diplomatic challenges.
“Delhi will always have doubts about Islamabad’s involvement, and the US will always have concerns about China’s involvement,” he said.
But ultimately, Bangladesh’s domestic stability depends more on governance than geopolitics, Khan said.
“Instability can come from a variety of sources, including lack of implementation of reforms, poor economic performance, and inflation,” he said. The evolution of the relationship between the BNP and rebel groups, especially the Jamaat, remains unknown.
Above all, Bangladeshi politics must not return to the old style of suppressing debate.
“If the BNP resorts to the same policy as the Awami League… cracking down on the public for criticism of its foreign policy… it will be very disastrous,” he said, adding that foreign policy toward India and Pakistan “will be strictly scrutinized by the public.”
Whether the new government accepts a reformed constitutional order or returns to majority rule will depend on how it balances parliamentary supremacy, the mandate of the July Charter Reform, and rising geopolitical expectations.
Elections solved the problem of power. The durability of Bangladesh’s post-uprising political order depends on how its power is exercised.
